America Votes: What’s at Stake in the US Election

America has a choice: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. The decision of whether the Republican or the Democrat will move into the Oval Office in the White House next has great significance not only for the country, but also for the world. And in the midst of the show and folklore in the US election campaign between fries, stars and little exciters, what is at stake in this vote is sometimes lost:

American democracy

In 2020, Trump brought democracy and the US constitution to the brink of collapse. The system only barely held up when the Republicans questioned the result of a fair and free election and tried with all their might to reverse it. All of this culminated in a violent attack on the US Capitol by Trump supporters on January 6, 2021 – an unprecedented attack on the heart of American democracy.

Once again, Trump is spreading claims without evidence that the Democrats could steal a victory from him through fraud. This time too, it is becoming apparent that Trump is unlikely to accept a possible defeat and could try to prevent a peaceful transfer of power from Biden to Harris. And: In recent years, Trump loyalists have been promoted to many inconspicuous positions that are important for the certification of the election results from the individual states. If Trump calls for resistance against a possible election defeat again, it could be more successful this time than it was back then.

And if Trump wins? He flirts with the fact that he only wants to be “dictator on day one” of a new term in office. In fact, the USA could become autocratic under him. During the election campaign, Trump often threatened to take action against political opponents if he won the election, to appoint special investigators against them, to indict them and even to put them in prison – for example high-ranking Democrats or journalists. He regularly describes the media as “enemies of the people” and wants to revoke the licenses of undesirable broadcasters. He has just provoked people with a public violent fantasy about one of his biggest internal party critics. And most recently he even spoke out in favor of using the military against “enemies within” – namely against “radical left-wing lunatics”, and cited prominent Democrats as an example.

Concerned about the statement about domestic military operations, Trump’s former chief of staff John Kelly publicly revealed that the Republican had made positive comments about Hitler several times during his time in office and said in a conversation that he wanted military men as loyal as “Hitler’s generals.” Trump’s team vehemently rejected the account.

Internal peace in the USA

The political mood in the USA is extremely tense. This vote is the first presidential election since the dramatic upheavals four years ago. There are fears and internal warnings from the security authorities that violence could break out again: unrest, escalating protests and targeted disruptive actions by violent extremists.

The situation has already escalated: in mid-July, a man shot at Trump from a nearby roof at a campaign event in Pennsylvania, wounding the Republican in the ear. The perpetrator was shot by security forces and a visitor died. The Secret Service also assumes that it thwarted another assassination attempt on Trump in Florida a short time later. This shows how dire the situation is – in all directions.

Meanwhile, Trump himself continues to fire things up, warning of alleged election fraud in the same manner as in 2020 and has been inciting his supporters for months. In the spring he made provocative statements at a campaign appearance in Ohio. The ex-president spoke about how he wanted to make it more difficult for Chinese cars to be sold on the US market. Then Trump suddenly said: “If I don’t get elected, there will be a bloodbath.”

The excitement was great. Trump’s team weighed it down and criticized the quote for being taken out of context. The pattern is not new: a targeted provocation by Trump, followed by an announcement from those around him that it was all just a joke or meant something completely different. In recent surveys, many Americans – especially in the battleground states – have expressed concern that there could be political violence after Election Day.

The future of Ukraine and the security of Europe

There is also a huge amount at stake internationally. During his term in office, Trump turned his back on many international allies, sought proximity to Russian President Vladimir Putin and other autocrats and threatened to withdraw the United States from NATO. The Republican says he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours before he was sworn in – also thanks to his good contacts with Putin. It can therefore be assumed that in a deal according to Trump’s idea, Ukraine would have to cede parts of its territory. At the same time, Trump is signaling that if he were re-elected, he would dramatically reduce or stop support for Kiev – and he has indicated that he would give Putin a free hand in his neighborhood.

During the election campaign, Trump said that the “president of a great country” once asked him whether the USA would still protect this country from Russia even if it did not pay its defense spending. He replied: “No, I wouldn’t protect you.” What’s more, he would “even encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they want.” A joke? Taken out of context? In any case, such statements have the potential to make some in Ukraine even more worried about the future of their country and some in Europe about the security of their continent. Without the help of the USA, hardly any country could defend itself against a powerful opponent like Russia.

If the foundations of American democracy were to falter domestically, it would cause lasting damage to the USA’s position in the world. And if, in a second Trump presidency, America no longer feels obliged to defend freedom against conquests like Russia’s in foreign policy, then this could also have an impact on the balance in the international order. Who would fill the vacuum? What if Putin actually felt emboldened by Trump to invade elsewhere? What if others follow Moscow’s example – for example, if China makes good on its threats to annex Taiwan?

Trump has been in power for four years without democracy in the USA and the world as a whole collapsing into the abyss. But a lot has happened since then. Trump has become even more extreme. Many moderate Republicans have turned away from him. In another term in office, he would probably have far fewer moderate forces around him, but rather radical conservatives who would only encourage him to take extreme positions.