Trump or Harris: Who is leading in the current polls for the 2024 US election? – Overview

Trump or Harris? That is the question that American voters will answer on November 5th. Now that incumbent Joe Biden has resigned, all that is clear is that someone new will move into the White House. It is still completely unclear whether this will be Biden’s deputy or his predecessor. So far, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are close to each other in the polls. The graphic below shows how the survey numbers have developed since May.

Don’t want to miss any current developments regarding the US election? Then take a look at our live ticker for the 2024 US election.

While Joe Biden had fallen significantly behind Donald Trump shortly before his withdrawal, Kamala Harris was able to catch up with the Republican after the start of her candidacy.

The underlying data comes from “Real Clear Politics” or the “Real Clear Polling” website operated by the institute. To do this, the analysts evaluate numerous surveys.

The poll numbers are considered an important indicator of the political mood in the USA, but should be viewed with caution. A mistake in an interview, a disastrous appearance in the next TV duel or another current development can quickly turn you completely upside down. as stern US correspondent Jan Christoph Wiechmann explains in detail here (stern+).

In addition, the electoral system in the USA is complicated. A majority of votes – known as the Popular Vote – does not necessarily mean victory. Hillary Clinton experienced this in 2016, when she received the most votes but did not become president. The American people do not elect their head of state directly, but separately by state through 538 so-called electors, whose distribution depends on the number of inhabitants. The candidate with the most votes receives all of the state's electors. More than 270 votes are needed for the presidency. The election process is called the “Electoral College.” Whoever can win the most votes will be the winner. You can find out what role the electors play in our article about the US electoral college at a glance.

While certain states are considered securely democratic or republican, others are hotly contested, the so-called swing states. The outcome of the election in these states is crucial to the final result. The graphic below shows the current poll numbers with a view to the individual states and electors. The swing states are marked with a blue-red circle with a double arrow.

A survey by the Pew Research Center polling institute shows clear differences in the priorities of Trump and Harris supporters. In the Trump camp, the economy is by far the most important issue, followed by immigration and violent crime. Kamala Harris's supporters are particularly concerned about health care, the appointment of the Supreme Court and abortion.

It is impossible to say with certainty when the election winner will be determined this year. In 2020, it was only clear after four days that Joe Biden had won the election. You can find out right here whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump won the race for the White House.

The most important dates for the 2024 US election can be read.