Traffic light off in Germany: Will Scholz now become Europe’s “lame duck”?

Chancellor Olaf Scholz continues as if nothing had happened. When he appeared in front of the cameras on Friday morning high above the Danube on the roof terrace of his hotel in front of the backdrop of Buda Castle, he still looked a bit shaken from the traffic light crash in Berlin. But he reels off the EU summit program as routinely as always.

It’s about Trump’s election victory, Europe must now move closer together and strengthen its competitiveness, said Scholz. Two minutes and 40 seconds, no questions, then we go to the Puskas Stadium for consultations with the other 27 EU heads of state and government.

Scholz arrived late in the Hungarian capital Budapest due to the government turmoil. He skipped the previous summit of the European Political Community with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj because of the turbulence in Berlin. On Thursday he still had to finalize the makeshift repairs to his collapsed government and only came to dinner, where the unstable situation in Germany was at least marginally discussed.

Scholz appeared weakened, says a diplomat who was there. The international media response to the traffic light crash was characterized by alarm given the fragile global political situation. The tenor is that on the very day that Donald Trump is elected president in the USA, the government of Europe’s largest economy is dismantling itself. “Yesterday evening Germany became a political lame duck, with a government that is probably not capable of governing and whose fate seems sealed,” wrote the Italian “La Stampa” after the memorable Wednesday evening on which the government coalition collapsed .

Day-to-day foreign policy business continues as normal

But are the effects on one’s role and reputation in the world really that dramatic? Scholz continues to govern with a red-green minority government and can no longer pass laws without the opposition. However, Scholz does not need a majority in parliament for day-to-day foreign policy business. His government can, for example, decide on migration agreements with other countries, approve arms deliveries to Israel or initiate the stationing of US medium-range missiles in Germany without consulting the Bundestag.

When it comes to money, however, nothing is possible without parliament – for example, when it comes to additional billions for Ukraine. Scholz recently wanted to suspend the debt brake again in the traffic light negotiations. In the end the coalition collapsed.

EU partners are urging new elections to be held more quickly

At the EU in Brussels and in many capitals of other member states, there is limited regret about the traffic lights being turned off. In the past three years, people there have often been frustrated that Germany was only able to take a position on important issues after long internal discussions between the governing parties SPD, FDP and Greens – or in the end not at all.

This made it difficult to make rapid progress on EU projects, such as the major asylum reform, the supply chain law or stricter climate protection requirements for the auto industry. “German Vote” is a somewhat disparaging term used in Brussels when Germany abstains from voting due to disputes in the coalition.

Accordingly, conservative European leaders are now openly putting pressure on Scholz to avoid a long deadlock. “I call for political stability and appeal to all actors to act responsibly,” said EU Parliament President Roberta Metsola in Budapest. “Europe is not strong without a strong Germany. That is important for us.” Heads of state and government expressed similar sentiments. “I hope (…) for a German solution as quickly as possible,” said Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. Domestic political turbulence is problematic in every country.

Scholz is not considered a bridge builder – Von der Leyen can hope for Merz

In the European Council, the body of heads of state and government of the EU states, Scholz has long been viewed critically, and not just by conservative politicians. In contrast to his predecessor Angela Merkel from the CDU, Scholz was not seen as the great bridge builder when it came to difficult issues.

According to diplomats, the Chancellor often took a lot of time to include smaller member states in decision-making processes initiated jointly with France. Scholz was not known for this, but rather for presenting his position in a rather undiplomatic and direct manner.

Summit participants also regularly describe the Chancellor’s relationship with French President Emmanuel Macron as difficult and not very constructive. It is said in Brussels that there can be no talk of a strong “German-French engine” for European projects – even if Scholz and Macron like to claim the opposite.

The traffic lights are now raising hopes in Brussels that major EU projects such as further tightening of the asylum system and the preparation of the next long-term Community budget can be tackled much earlier than expected.

Because of the disputes in the German government, it was considered very likely that the responsible EU Commission would not make concrete proposals until after the next federal election – i.e., according to the original expectation, not until late autumn or winter of next year.

In the event of new elections, key projects could now be tackled in early summer. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen can also hope that Friedrich Merz, a party friend, will become Germany’s new chancellor.

Vote of confidence five days before Trump

According to the Scholz plan, this will still take a while. As things stand, he doesn’t want to ask the vote of confidence until January 15th – five days before Trump returns to the White House. Nobody yet knows what will happen next. Suspension of aid to Ukraine? Peace talks with Putin? Trade war with the EU? How does he behave towards China?

Europe will have to react to this and Germany, the largest and most populous country with a government without the support of parliament, would only be able to act politically to a limited extent. Scholz would then actually be considered a “lame duck” and the country would have the hot election campaign phase ahead of it.

The most likely election date would be March 30th. If Scholz loses the election, once the new Bundestag has been constituted, he would no longer be able to make important decisions as acting chancellor without consulting his successor. At least that’s how it is usual. The coalition negotiations could take one to two months or even longer. Then you quickly end up in May or June.

The opposition is therefore putting pressure on the date to be brought forward. She’s targeting Jan. 19, the day before Trump’s inauguration. At the end of the EU summit, Scholz appeared surprisingly willing to negotiate. Together with an agreement in the Bundestag about which laws should still be passed, one could also talk about the date for the new election. “For me, we have a big democratic celebration here, and that works best when everyone comes to the party together,” he said.