World Climate Conference: Climate Summit in Baku – What it’s about and what the hurdles are

Ukraine, the Middle East, Trump, traffic light chaos: the challenges are overwhelming. The climate crisis has slipped down the political agenda – even though it is worsening dramatically. This is shown by flood disasters such as those recently in Spain. The annual world climate conference is now beginning in the Azerbaijani capital Baku.

The crisis is known and the world is far away from its desired course. What will another climate conference bring?

First of all: attention. While the climate crisis is currently being overshadowed by other crises, it is guaranteed to receive attention with tens of thousands of summit participants. The world comes together to tackle a problem together. In times when rockets are flying and cooperation seems utopian in many places, that is a win in itself.

However, this time a number of heads of state and government have canceled their attendance – in addition to Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), also US President Joe Biden, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and EU Commission head Ursula von der Leyen. However, their delegations are represented in the actual negotiations.

Azerbaijan is better known for oil and gas than for climate protection. Why do you meet there?

The climate conference rotates between the world regions. Apart from that, the UN hardly sets any guidelines for host countries that want to host the meeting. Martin Kaiser, head of Greenpeace Germany, complains: After Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, the meeting is now taking place again in “an autocratic host country that sees and wants to maintain the production of oil and gas as the mainstay of its future economic development “.

The world isn’t really making any progress on climate protection, is it?

So far, states have done far too little to counteract the worsening of the crisis. According to the United Nations, with its current plans, the world is heading for 2.6 to 3.1 degrees of warming by the end of the century – which would make significant parts of the planet uninhabitable. “The consequences of such extreme warming for people, societies and economies are unimaginable,” says the head of the UN Environment Program, Inger Andersen.

According to the EU climate change service Copernicus, the current year will almost certainly be the first since records began in which the average temperature was more than 1.5 degrees warmer than the pre-industrial average. This will also make it the warmest year since measurements began.

What would be a success in Baku? What exactly is it about this time?

Especially about money. Because: without money, there is no climate protection. The expansion of renewable energies and the necessary renovations to buildings and transport cost money. This also applies to adaptation to climate change: dikes, more greenery in cities or a restructuring of agriculture need to be paid for. To ensure that all of this can also be achieved in poorer countries, the industrialized countries promised years ago to provide 100 billion US dollars annually. This commitment initially applies until 2025.

This should be clarified in Baku. In times of tight budgets and multiple burdens, this debate is unlikely to be an easy one. The new goal should be based on the actual identified needs. “It is clear that it will no longer be about billions, but rather trillions,” says Kaiser from Greenpeace.

What role does the re-election of Donald Trump play?

A big one. During Trump’s first term in office, the USA withdrew from the Paris climate agreement – and that is now threatening to happen again. According to the New York Times, Trump is not only preparing the exit, but also the reduction of nature reserves to make way for oil drilling and mining.

“Trump doubts the reality of the climate crisis and will advocate increasing oil and gas production, even though this destroys the basis of life on our planet,” says Christoph Bals from the Germanwatch organization. However, climate expert Jan Kowalzig from Oxfam says: Trump “will only be able to slow down the path to a world without fossil fuels, not stop it.” Renewable energies have now become too cheap for that. However, it will be extremely difficult to support poorer countries without the USA.

And what is Germany doing?

Germany is actually expected to lead in Baku – especially after the US election. Although the Germans are negotiating within the framework of the European Union, they play a central role there. However, the fact that Scholz canceled his appearance in Baku because of the government crisis sends different signals.

Environmental organizations are demanding that Germany must pay its promised money for climate financing next year, despite all the budget problems. “If the six billion from Germany wobbles, the credibility of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has repeatedly assured Germany’s reliability on this issue,” says Kaiser from Greenpeace. “That would trigger a downward spiral in ambitions and minimize the willingness of other countries to honor their financial commitments.”

Despite everything, is there any chance of progress?

Kaiser is cautiously optimistic about this: “All countries around the world are now feeling the dramatic consequences – including economically – of increasing weather extremes. Not acting is not an option, it will simply be too expensive.” According to many experts, a new financial target could strengthen trust between poorer countries and industrialized countries. And: States must sharpen their plans for more climate protection by next spring. Ambitious announcements in Baku could put pressure on other states.

And what is at stake anyway?

The livelihoods of millions of people. The destructive hurricane “Helene” in the USA, floods in Spain, Austria and Bosnia and also forest fires show it clearly: the world is becoming more unsafe. The fact that climate change acts like an accelerant has been proven many times – for individual events, for example, repeatedly by the organization World Weather Attribution.

Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, says: “From a scientific perspective, there is more reason for concern than ever before.” We are seeing the first signs that global warming is accelerating and we are in a dangerous situation. But: “There is still the possibility of turning things around.”