Markus Söder’s new role in the election campaign: a leg-biter for Merz

The tireless Markus Söder can’t help it. Yes, in late summer he came to an almost peaceful agreement with Friedrich Merz regarding the Union’s candidacy for chancellor. Since then, the Franconian has been sending unsolicited advice to Berlin almost every day. Now that the election is getting closer, he is tackling the coalition question.

At the weekend, Söder ruled out almost all possible coalitions for the Union. A party with the Greens is out of the question for him anyway; The FDP also needs a break now. Of course, nothing can be done with BSW and AfD. Only the SPD apparently believes Söder is still suitable for an alliance, but then please without Olaf Scholz. Would you like a little caviar with that, Mr. Prime Minister?

Is Söder so annoying against Friedrich Merz? Is he nursing his bruised ego? Is he just bored? Might be. But this time there may be more to it than just his desire for recognition.

In politics, especially in election campaigns, different logics apply at the same time: On the one hand, there is the party logic designed to maximize votes. In this case, at least excluding unpopular alliances, parties or people makes sense. As an example: If you vote for Union, you certainly won’t get anything green.

On the other hand, there is a negotiation logic designed to push through your own content as broadly as possible. In this regard, Söder’s exclusion arias are damaging the Union in the long term. If Söder’s word really applies, only the SPD would remain in a coalition, and they could then dictate the conditions to a possible election winner, Merz: Citizens’ money renovation? Pension reform? Debt brake? The Social Democrats could say: Either it runs according to our rules – or we’re gone too, Mr. Merz.

So much for the theory. But when it comes to francs, it always has its own internal logic. This changes frequently, sometimes weekly. In 2021, Söder’s inner drive helped maneuver the Union into the abyss: first the Bavarian argued relentlessly and publicly with Armin Laschet over the candidacy for chancellor, then he torpedoed the candidate’s campaign until election day. Laschet already lost the election due to his own mistakes, but Söder made the race even more difficult for him.

You can also read his latest objections as if Söder wanted to wall up his conqueror Friedrich Merz and harm him. Might be. However, this time there is also a different interpretation. It goes like this: This time Söder plays the tough guy for his boss, does what Merz can’t do himself. Appears pompously in public, but actually subordinates himself. Little by little, the Bavarian Prime Minister for Merz is biting away everything that is considered politically toxic in traffic light Germany: the Greens, Lindner-FDP, Scholz.

It may be that the troublemaker Söder will still get in touch. The argument against this is that the relationship between Söder and Merz is different than that between Laschet and Söder. Merz speaks about the Bavarian Prime Minister with less condescension than his predecessor. They both talk on the phone more often and communicate with each other.

Of course, many in the Union still consider Söder to be unpredictable; Of course, the CDU man will point to his own great personal poll numbers and will always set top results. But hardly anyone has any objections to his current role.

In the election campaign, Söder’s attacks on all possible partners can increase the number of CDU votes. After the election, Söder’s opinion will probably be unimportant enough in public perception that Friedrich Merz could not approach the Greens or the FDP.

At least if Söder endures the role of calf biter until then. He himself has little to lose anyway, stays in the conversation at least once as an entertaining Bulli from Bavaria and – being the costume lover that he is – can loudly make a name for himself in his latest disguise. Woof!

Friedrich Merz, on the other hand, doesn’t need to concern himself with such things; he prefers to be the bridge builder.

Here a friendly sentence about Robert Habeck, there some pity for the FDP and a little understatement on the question of whether absolute majorities for the Union might be within reach. Just don’t make any mistakes, just don’t overdo it. Then it will be okay with the chancellorship.

Carnivalist Söder will probably be wearing a completely new costume by then anyway. He was already dressed up as bright green Shrek.