Path to new elections: New elections after traffic lights are turned off on February 23rd

After the traffic light coalition collapsed, the Bundestag is to be re-elected on February 23rd. After days of struggle, the SPD and the Union, including the Greens, agreed on this date. First, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) will ask the Bundestag a vote of confidence on December 16th. If, as expected, he does not get a majority, the election date will be formally proposed by the cabinet to Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who will then decide. But that’s just a formality.

SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich was subsequently relieved about the agreement. “Now we can finally move away from this tiresome discussion about the election date and can concentrate on what is ultimately good for our country,” he said. Union parliamentary group leader Friedrich Merz spoke of a “good solution”, even if he could have imagined an earlier election date. You lose around a month for the election to the next Bundestag and thus also for the formation of a government.

SPD 15 to 18 percent behind the Union

Scholz originally did not want to ask the vote of confidence until January 15th, citing the organizational challenges, in order to bring about a new election at the end of March. Only after public pressure did he show that he was willing to compromise. A later election date would have been strategically more favorable for the SPD because it is 15 to 18 percentage points behind the CDU/CSU in the polls. You now have 103 days left to catch up.

The Union originally wanted January 19th as the election date. On Monday and Tuesday, Merz and Mützenich held talks about a compromise. The result is now February 23rd. If Scholz does not receive a majority in the vote of confidence on December 16th, the Federal President will have 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag. There is then a 60-day deadline by which the new election must take place. This deadline is February 23rd.

Holidays in two federal states

It’s not an ideal date because then it’s school holidays in Saxony. In Saarland it is the weekend immediately before the holidays, when many people are likely to have already traveled. In the first quarter, January 19th and March 30th are the only dates without holidays. These were the original proposals from the Union and SPD, which have now been viewed as too early or too late. However, only around six percent of those eligible to vote live in Saxony and Saarland. And there is postal voting as an option.

Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier considers the agreed schedule “according to today’s assessment (…) to be realistic,” as his spokeswoman announced in Berlin. Before that, he received parliamentary group leaders Merz, Mützenich as well as Britta Haßelmann and Katharina Dröge (both Greens) for a discussion. He will hold talks with the chairmen of all Bundestag parties and, if the Bundestag withdraws its confidence in the Chancellor, will quickly decide whether to dissolve Parliament.

“The Federal President has also advocated that all centrist factions discuss responsibly and collectively which legislative proposals can still be implemented in this legislative period in order to ensure Germany’s internal and external security and international reliability in this transition phase,” said the spokeswoman continue with.

The Federal Returning Officer believes February 23rd is feasible

Comprehensive preparations must now be made by February 23rd. Election committees must be appointed at district and state level, election workers must be recruited and trained, and voting rooms must be found and equipped. Election notifications are sent to over 60 million voters. In addition, there is the dispatch of postal voting documents and the establishment of postal voting districts – there were 25,000 in 2021.

Federal Returning Officer Ruth Brand still sees the date as uncritical. The possible dates in February mentioned in the media “I think can be carried out in a legally secure manner,” said Brand at a special meeting of the Bundestag’s election audit committee before the decision was announced.

No state elections before new elections

There will now be no more state elections until the federal election. The general election in Hamburg will take place a week later on March 2nd. This is also why the SPD sympathized with an appointment in March. She assumes that she will again be the strongest force in Hamburg with her first mayor, Peter Tschentscher, and would have liked to carry the momentum into the federal election. The Union wanted to prevent that. The Social Democrats are currently between 15 and 18 percentage points behind the CDU and CSU in the polls.

New elections in 109 days – faster than in 2005

The new election will now take place even faster than in the most recent historical example in 2005, when the then Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) asked the vote of confidence. At that time there were 119 days between the decision for a new election and the date, now it is 109 days.

The Bundestag continues to work normally

The Bundestag will continue to work normally until it is dissolved. However, the Union faction only wants to discuss a few projects in the Bundestag before the vote of confidence. He expects that the Bundestag will deal with the supplementary budget for 2024 this week, but will not decide on it, but will refer it back to the budget committee, said the Parliamentary Managing Director of the CDU/CSU members of the Bundestag, Thorsten Frei (CDU). .

The SPD is pushing for Parliament to remain able to act. “Our goal was, is and remains to make urgent and necessary decisions in the German Bundestag. We are currently in a special situation that requires responsible and prudent action,” said the parliamentary director of the SPD parliamentary group, Katja Mast.