Bundestag election: Aiwanger: Free voters with direct mandates in the Bundestag

After several unsuccessful attempts, Free Voters leader Hubert Aiwanger wants to gain entry into the Bundestag via three directly won constituencies – with himself and, among others, two Bavarian district administrators as driving forces. The Bavarian Economics Minister announced this in Munich, one day before a federal party conference of the Free Voters. “According to all estimates, this should succeed: three plus X number of direct mandates,” he argued. Aiwanger has long dreamed of entering the Bundestag and a joint government coalition under the leadership of the Union.

“We want to help the Union not to have to lie in the black-green or black-red nest,” said Aiwanger. He would therefore be happy to see a corresponding coalition statement from CDU leader Friedrich Merz in favor of the FDP and the Free Voters – but this should not happen because the Free Voters have the CSU as their opponent in federal elections.

In previous federal elections, the Free Voters had always clearly failed to reach the five percent hurdle – their best result so far was 2.4 percent in 2021. Even in current surveys, the Free Voters are either not listed individually or are well below five percent. Aiwanger has no choice but to hope for first-vote victories for the Free Voters in at least three constituencies in the early federal election on February 23rd and, in this detour, to enter parliament.

Aiwanger, two district administrators and a mayor

In addition to him, the Landshut district administrator Peter Dreier and the Oberallgäu district administrator Indra Baier-Müller are running as direct candidates in Bavaria. Another applicant is the mayor of the city of Gersthofen (Augsburg district), Michael Wörle.

Aiwanger himself is changing his constituency specifically for this purpose: he will not run in his home country in the Landshut district, but in the Rottal-Inn constituency, also in Lower Bavaria.

In addition, there could also be one or two promising direct candidates for the Free Voters nationwide, said Aiwanger, but without giving any details. And there could also be one or two more promising applicants in Bavaria.

Because of the basic mandate clause that still applies, a party can enter the Bundestag based on its second vote result even if it does not pass the five percent hurdle but wins three direct mandates. The Federal Constitutional Court decided this in the summer and thus overturned a core part of the traffic light coalition’s electoral law reform. But there have to be at least three direct mandates. If only one or two constituency candidates win their constituencies, but the party remains below five percent nationwide, these constituency winners will also be denied entry into the Bundestag.

Just one or two constituency wins is not enough

Aiwanger hopes to be able to build on the local political successes of the Free Voters in Bavaria. In fact, his party has had several district administrators in Bavaria for years. Now the Free Voters chairman hopes that these or incumbent mayors could also be victorious as Bundestag candidates with their local popularity. However, of the 13 FW district administrators in Bavaria, he only presented two as candidates.

It is at least questionable whether the plan can work: in the 2021 federal election, for example, the best first vote result for the Free Voters in Bavaria was 16.7 percent, in the Rottal-Inn district. The CSU also got more than twice as many first votes there. On the other hand, Dreier was re-elected as district administrator in 2020 with 73 percent.

This is exactly where Aiwanger hopes to win the constituency. He is also likely to have a chance because the long-time CSU member of the Bundestag, Max Straubinger, is no longer running this time. The two district administrators should, if possible, score points in their respective home constituencies, Wörle in the Augsburg-City constituency.

“Changing the chancellor is not enough”

“We know what’s going on locally,” said Aiwanger. “We sit in the town halls and district offices.” From there the “renewal of Germany” should succeed. A change in policy is needed – not just a change in the Chancellor.

Aiwanger’s theory: If the goal of getting into the Bundestag through at least three direct mandates is credible, then the five percent hurdle is also within reach. He is confident that this mark can definitely be achieved.