Diplomacy: 1,000 days of war – How do Moscow and Kyiv achieve peace?

More than 12,000 civilians killed, tens of thousands of soldiers killed and a good 300,000 war-wounded on the Ukrainian side alone, as well as dozens of destroyed towns and villages, are part of the record of the Russian invasion so far. The estimated war damage in Ukraine is over 750 billion euros. Russia’s war of aggression lasts 1,000 days this Tuesday (November 19th).

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has now presented several plans to end the conflict. Some questions and answers about the situation before the third winter of war and the prospects for a peace solution:

Russia continues to advance in Ukraine – how great is the pressure on the Ukrainian armed forces?

The situation for the Ukrainian troops along the front is becoming increasingly critical. The main problem is less the lack of supplies of ammunition and weapons. Despite increased mobilization, Kyiv is primarily lacking motivated soldiers.

The number of deserters is growing. Of over 60,000 cases this year, almost 10,000 were registered in October alone. According to observers, the number of unreported cases is said to be much higher. In addition, there are losses through death, wounding or imprisonment. Major Russian front breakthroughs could only be a matter of time.

President Zelensky has drawn up a “peace formula”, a “victory plan” and now an action plan – how does he imagine a solution to the conflict?

Zelenskyj is not officially backing away from his “peace formula” presented in autumn 2022. The core demand remains a complete withdrawal of Russian troops from internationally recognized territory within the 1991 borders. Since this appears hopeless by military means, Zelensky only admits that not all occupied areas need to be reconquered. They could also come back through negotiations – he left it open how.

In addition, Kiev rejects Moscow’s demand for renunciation of NATO membership as enshrined in the constitution. With his “victory plan” presented this fall, Zelensky raised the stakes even further and demanded that the Western allies be invited to join the NATO military alliance during the war.

Russia’s army is gaining ground every day – how big is the potential?

Since the capture of the Avdiivka fortress near Donetsk at the beginning of the year, Russian soldiers have advanced around 40 kilometers to the west. The terrain gains are small but steady.

The strategically important city of Kurakhove in southern Donbass is about to fall. Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar and Torezk are also at great risk. In the north, the front is crumbling along the Oskil River. If the important railway junction of Kupyansk falls, then Russian troops are likely to retake Lyman and threaten the last urban area under Kiev’s control in the Donbass around Sloviansk.

However, Moscow’s losses are huge. There are no exact figures; according to Western estimates, over 115,000 Russian soldiers have now fallen and more than half a million have been wounded – and the trend has been rising recently. This limits the Russians’ potential for conquest in the long term.

Ukrainian troops continue to occupy towns in the Russian border region of Kursk – how and when can Russia regain control there?

The Russians have gathered 50,000 soldiers there, including around 10,000 North Korean fighters. The aim is to use a major offensive to drive the Ukrainians out of the country by the time Donald Trump takes office in the USA.

Under no circumstances does Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin want to give up core Russian territory if the war were to freeze. So far, however, the Russian attacks have been without major success, with high losses.

Ukraine may be able to hold its positions and stop the Russian troops. US President Joe Biden’s surprising decision to allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons against military targets on Russian territory could slow the wave of Russian attacks near Kursk. Later, Ukraine is likely to use this new “free pass” that Zelensky has been asking for for months to target other military targets in Russia.

The West criticizes that Russia has no real interest in negotiations – how does Moscow imagine an end to the war?

Although Moscow repeatedly emphasizes its willingness to negotiate, it sets extremely tough conditions. Putin has recently emphasized several times that Kiev must not only write off NATO membership, but also give up the occupied territories. The Kremlin chief made people sit up and take notice when he said at the Valdai political discussion forum at the beginning of the month that the people in the areas controlled by Russia should decide for themselves where the border goes.

Konstantin Remchukov, editor-in-chief of the Russian daily newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta, recently wrote that the Kremlin has become aware that Ukraine is an independent country with its own identity; a country in which many no longer want to have anything to do with Russia.

It sounded like a confirmation of this thesis when Putin remarked at the Valdai Forum that Ukraine had a future as a “sovereign and independent country,” but only if it remained neutral and did not allow itself to be turned into a tool of the West directed against Russia . At the same time, he let it be known that he was ready to make a deal with US President-elect Trump.

Trump has announced that he will end the war quickly – how does he imagine that?

Trump himself has not yet commented on this. The “Wall Street Journal” reported ideas from his environment. One of them is that Ukraine should undertake not to join NATO for at least 20 years in order to continue receiving US military aid.

There is also talk of a demilitarized zone along the front. It is not Americans who are supposed to secure the zone, but rather Europeans, it was said, citing informed people. At the same time, the newspaper’s sources said that Trump would ultimately decide on US action.

How likely is it that the US will stop aid to Ukraine?

At least it cannot be ruled out that aid could be reduced – or threatened to do so in order to force Ukraine to negotiate. With Trump’s election victory, Republicans who have long claimed that the US is spending too much money to support Ukraine are now coming to power.

Trump’s prospective national security adviser, Mike Waltz, wrote last year with a view to the Republican majority in the House of Representatives: “The era of blank checks for Ukraine from Congress is over.” At the same time, however, he said that the USA had the leverage against Russia to lift the restrictions on the use of American weapons supplied to Ukraine.

In addition, tech billionaire Elon Musk, who is currently spending a lot of time with Trump, could have an influence on future Ukraine policy. Musk and his confidant David Sacks have long been in favor of a quick end to the war. Two years ago, Musk also pushed forward with his own peace plan. This included referendums in the territories occupied by Russia, which would have effectively anchored them in Russian hands.

Germany is Ukraine’s most important supporter after the USA – what happens next after the traffic light coalition breaks?

Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has promised Ukraine unwavering help – as long as it is necessary. Further aid to Ukraine also depends on the outcome of the early federal elections in February. But even if the CDU, which is leading in the polls, wins the election, German support is likely.

It is likely to increase even further with the risk of further escalation if a possible Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) carries out his threat and delivers the Taurus cruise missile to Ukraine – with the intention of hitting military targets far in the Russian hinterland. Scholz, who spoke to Kremlin chief Putin on the phone for the first time in almost two years on Friday and wants to continue the dialogue with Moscow, continues to categorically reject this.

What can a solution to the conflict look like?

So far there is no solution in sight. But there is increasing talk of diplomacy to end the war. President Zelenskyy is also talking about it more and more often. Chancellor Scholz has so far warned against a dictated peace and emphasized that a solution is only possible in agreement with Kiev.

Russia warns that the war will continue as long as the United States and other Western allies continue to supply weapons to Ukraine – and Kiev’s goal is to inflict a strategic defeat on Moscow so that it can never attack another country again.