K question in the SPD: Scholz or Pistorius: There can only be one

Fighting poverty, climate crisis, Taurus cruise missiles: These are topics that Chancellor Olaf Scholz dealt with over the last three days in mid-summer temperatures at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro. At 10:34 a.m. he landed back in Berlin at two degrees. From now on there is only one thing left for him: the SPD’s candidacy for chancellor.

Why does the K question arise at all?

Scholz had already virtually named himself the candidate for chancellor at his traditional summer press conference in July. “As chancellor, I will run to become chancellor again,” he said at the time. But now his traffic light government, which he actually wanted to turn into a project lasting more than four years, has collapsed. Scholz is now only Chancellor on call. He has been getting poor results in the polls for months, while his Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) is consistently in first place in all politician rankings.

There has long been a secret debate in the SPD about substituting Pistorius from Lower Saxony as a replacement candidate. However, it only took off after the board last week decided not to ensure clarity in its first meeting after the decision to call for a new Bundestag election.

Scholz has a lot of government experience. Before his three years as Chancellor, he served as both Labor Minister and Finance Minister under CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel. He also governed Hamburg as First Mayor for seven years and therefore knows exactly what makes the states tick. He is deeply involved in all topics and has already shown that he can turn around bad poll numbers. In the last federal election, two and a half months before the date, he was 16 percentage points behind his competitor Armin Laschet from the CDU – and won.

What speaks for Pistorius?

He is considered authentic and hands-on and is probably the most popular politician in all surveys for this reason. He is also a fresh face in the election campaign, which could initially unsettle the Union. Because so far she has focused entirely on Scholz. Pistorius could provide a new boost of motivation among the SPD’s election campaigners. And it could mobilize some of those voters who are turning away from Berlin politics in frustration.

Who decides on the candidate for chancellor?

The board of the SPD, which includes 34 politicians. It is led by chairmen Lars Klingbeil and Saskia Esken as well as by Secretary General Matthias Miersch, all three of whom supported Scholz even before the traffic light coalition collapsed. Pistorius is also a member of the committee, but Scholz is not. However, the Chancellor usually takes part in the board meetings. The party leadership’s decision must then be confirmed by the party conference on January 11th. As a rule, however, this is considered a formality.

When will the decision be made?

The only thing that is clear is that the board’s decision should be made by November 30th. Then the SPD wants to present its candidate for chancellor for the first time at its “election victory conference” and start the election campaign. There are still ten days until then. During this period, the decision is expected sooner rather than later. A regular board meeting is scheduled for next Monday. The top committee could also meet sooner or later to make a decision.

There is no clear trend. In the past few days, individual local and state politicians, and later three members of the Bundestag, have openly spoken out in favor of Pistorius. A statement by the two chairmen of the North Rhine-Westphalia Bundestag members, Dirk Wiese and Wiebke Esdar, received a lot of attention, in which there was talk of “a lot of support for Boris Pistorius”.

The party leadership has repeatedly reiterated its support for Scholz, but has not been able to stop the debate. On Tuesday evening, shortly before Scholz flew out of Rio, the inner leadership got together to prepare for the election campaign. The K question has not yet been clarified.