Situation at a glance: Israel and Hezbollah are approaching a ceasefire

After more than a year of war between Israel and the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon, there are increasing signs that a ceasefire is imminent. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will convene the security cabinet tonight to approve a 60-day ceasefire with the pro-Iranian Shiite militia, an official told The Times of Israel. The German Press Agency learned from government circles that the cabinet’s approval of the agreement negotiated under US mediation was “probable”. Lebanese government sources in Beirut also expressed optimism. The decision rests with Israel.

“We are close to an agreement on a ceasefire and good discussions have been held,” said Communications Director of the US National Security Council, John Kirby. It’s going in the right direction. “But it’s not done yet,” Kirby said. However, he did not want to comment on details in order not to jeopardize the chance of an agreement.

The present agreement provides for a 60-day implementation period that should allow Israel’s military to withdraw, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing Lebanese officials. The Lebanese army should also be stationed in the border area with Israel to prevent Hezbollah fighters from gaining a foothold there again. An international commission should monitor compliance with the agreement with the UN peacekeeping force Unifil, which has been stationed in Lebanon for years, it said.

The attacks are still continuing

For now, however, Israel and Hezbollah continued their attacks on each other. The Israeli Air Force again attacked the suburbs of the Lebanese capital Beirut. Videos on social media showed entire buildings collapsing as a result of the air strikes. Eyewitnesses reported that the explosions could be heard throughout Beirut. An army spokesman had previously made several calls for evacuation to residents. The Israeli army also continued to attack in other parts of the country.

The attacks are primarily intended to weaken Hezbollah’s ability to recover from the heavy blows of the past few months, to re-arm itself and to reorganize. The militia fired rockets at Israel again. Security regulations have been tightened in northern Israel, and schools will remain closed in some areas today because of fears of increased rocket fire. During the night the warning sirens wailed again in the north of the country.

Army: Israel attacked by more than 17,000 rockets

Hezbollah, which is financed by Iran, said it wanted to use the attacks to force an end to the Israeli offensive against the Islamist Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The terrorist group carried out a massacre in Israel on October 7, 2023, in which around 1,200 people were killed and 250 others were kidnapped as hostages. The attack triggered the Gaza war that has been going on for more than a year. Since then, Hezbollah, which is allied with Hamas, has fired more than 17,000 rockets into Israel, the army said on request.

During the same period, Israel’s military attacked around 12,000 terrorist targets in Lebanon, it said. Hezbollah is now considered to be ailing since intensive air strikes and a ground offensive launched by Israel in mid-September. Most of their leaders were killed. In total, more than 3,000 people died in Lebanon as a result of Israel’s counterattacks. In both countries, tens of thousands of people are waiting to return to their homes once the fighting has ended. In Israel, the declared aim of the war was to return residents who had fled from the shelling in the north of the country.

Israel’s army: years-long fight against Iran’s arms smuggling

The government official quoted by the Times of Israel stressed that Israel accepted a cessation of hostilities, but not an end to the war against the Hezbollah militia. It is not known how long the ceasefire will last. “It could be a month, it could be a year,” the Israeli official told the newspaper.

The Israeli army, meanwhile, provided a closer look for the first time into its years-long battle against the smuggling of weapons from Iran to the Hezbollah militia. Covert routes through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon have been set up for smuggling.

Over the years, thousands of trucks and hundreds of planes have been used to bring thousands of rockets and other weapons into Lebanon with which to attack Israel. The Syrian authorities cooperated tacitly. Israel has targeted these routes not just in recent months, but for years, the army said. Israel will continue to take action against any attempt by Iran to supply weapons to its allies in the Middle East.

Efforts also for a ceasefire in Gaza

The USA, as Israel’s most important ally, has been pushing for a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel for weeks. Their mediator Amos Hochstein traveled to Lebanon and Israel again this week for negotiations. Meanwhile, White House Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk is expected in Saudi Arabia today.

According to information from Washington, McGurk wants to talk there about how a possible ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon can be used as a catalyst for a possible ceasefire in the Gaza Strip as well as for more stability in the region. Ending the Gaza war is considered much more complicated, also because Hamas is still holding hostages kidnapped from Israel.

Arrest warrant against Netanyahu: G7 continues to look for a common line

Meanwhile, on today’s second and final day of their meeting in Italy, the foreign ministers of the group of seven democratic industrial nations (G7) are likely to once again deal with the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The G7 is looking for a common stance on this. Italy, as host of the meeting in the small central Italian town of Fiuggi, is trying to find a wording that all seven states can support.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) recently issued an arrest warrant against Netanyahu and his former defense minister Joav Galant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza war. Actually, all states party to the Criminal Court are obliged to execute the arrest warrants. With the exception of the USA, all G7 countries are included. In addition to the USA and Italy, these also include Canada, Great Britain, Japan, France and Germany.