Will Emmanuel Macron fall with him? French Prime Minister on the brink of elimination

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier once negotiated Brexit with the British – but he has now failed because of his compatriots. He and his government could be overthrown by a vote of no confidence as early as this Wednesday, after just three months in office. Both Marine Le Pen’s right-wing populist Rassemblement National (RN) and the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) have announced that they will vote against him. A remarkable alliance.

The crisis is triggered by a number. Barnier had dubbed it the “Sword of Damocles”: 3,228 billion euros, that is the mountain of debt that France has piled up. People in Bercy, as the headquarters of the Finance Ministry is called, were particularly alarmed recently because of the budget deficit: this year it has grown to a whopping six percent. In order to curb this course, Barnier presented a budget for 2025. But the Prime Minister does not have a majority in Parliament. And despite various concessions, no one in the opposition wants to support his austerity package.

Until recently, Barnier had mainly courted Marine Le Pen. But she turned out to be a gambler: as soon as he met her on one point, the head of the RN formulated new “red lines”. Last Monday, the head of government even issued a press release in which he acknowledged the right-wing populist by name as a negotiating partner. In vain. The RN said “non”. In the National Assembly, Michel Barnier then announced that he would use the infamous Article 49.3 of the Constitution to pass part of his budget without the consent of Parliament. It was therefore clear that the opposition would force his resignation through a vote of no confidence.

In this case, you are entering “unknown territory,” Barnier warned the parliamentarians darkly. France is mired in a financial and political crisis. Barnier himself was only able to be appointed to office after months of tough struggle – a scenario that gives an idea of ​​how difficult it will be to find a successor.

There is a simple calculation behind Marine Le Pen’s decision: opposing austerity measures is well received by her electorate. Because in her opinion someone else is responsible for the political chaos – and she agrees with the left on this: Emmanuel Macron.

In June, the president carried out a daring maneuver, the meaning of which is still a mystery in France. A lonely decision that now falls at the feet of Emmanuel Macron. Because the consequence of the presidential poker game is: In the National Assembly there are three blocks of equal size facing each other that cannot decide anything without each other – and that do not want to decide anything with each other. The political crisis was thus initiated, caused by the president himself. In September, Macron brought his Prime Minister Michel Barnier into office as a “guarantor of stability”. And now, in all likelihood, it will fail.

Macron is also held responsible for the increased budget gap. Right at the beginning of his first term in office, among other things, he reduced the wealth tax; it now only applies to real estate ownership. Rich people have been paying significantly less taxes since then. , which reports to the government, already pointed out the high costs of the reform for the state in 2021. Even more worrying: Macron justified the abolition of the wealth tax by saying that it would provide an incentive for the wealthy to invest their money in the productive economy instead of in real estate. But according to the experts, this effect did not materialize.

The political weight of this reform continues to weigh heavily today. The label “President of the Rich” sticks to Emmanuel Macron. Neither the concessions after the yellow vest protests nor his generosity during the pandemic and the war-related energy crisis could change that. Overall, there have been more tax cuts in France in recent years than in most other EU countries. That also explains the deficit.

In France these days people are at best shaking their heads at the political personnel. What should happen next with a parliament that apparently has no interest in negotiating compromises? A new prime minister, a new austerity package, another vote of no confidence? Anger is increasingly directed against the man in the Élysée: According to a poll, Emmanuel Macron would have to resign if his head of government is overthrown. And anyway, where is the president?

While France’s government is in jeopardy, Emmanuel Macron is traveling through Saudi Arabia. He is currently a guest of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, with whom he wants to agree a strategic partnership. He did not respond to the domestic crisis last Monday. The French media is politely speculating about a presidential “decoupling” from domestic politics. “Arrogance” is the second label that stubbornly clings to the president.

“Macron resignation”? Those close to the president say that resignation is not up for debate. It is well known that the harder it gets, the more determined he fights. Macron has also always ruled out leaving before the constitutional end of his term in office in 2027. He will now have to find a new solution for forming a government as quickly as possible. The unanimous opinion is that the President should take as much time as he did last time. New elections that could give parliament a clearer majority cannot take place until next June at the earliest.

Marine Le Pen, however, has a different suggestion: After everything Emmanuel Macron has tried so far, he only has one way out – his resignation. The left-wing extremist party La France Insoumise sees it similarly. It can be assumed that in both camps there will now be a lot of fanfare towards early presidential elections. A dead end into which the power-conscious ruler of the Élysee has maneuvered himself by dissolving parliament.