Situation at a glance: Syria faces an uncertain future after a lightning change of power

After the lightning overthrow of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, the country is facing an uncertain future. The flight of Assad and his family to Russia offers the chance for a new beginning after decades of dictatorship and almost 14 years of civil war with hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions of displaced people. Much depends on whether the various rebel groups can agree on a distribution of power – or whether a power vacuum leads to new violence and Syria and its ethnic and religious minorities sink into chaos. What follows in the country after Assad’s fall could trigger new conflicts in the region.

UN Security Council discusses Syria

Geir Pedersen, the United Nations special envoy for Syria, urged “to avoid bloodshed.” He called for dialogue and the preparation of an interim government in the country, where armed forces and foreign powers have long struggled for influence. At Russia’s request, the UN Security Council in New York wants to discuss the situation in Syria behind closed doors today. The consultations are scheduled to take place in the evening German time, as the German Press Agency learned from diplomatic circles.

Russia grants Assad asylum

Rebels led by the Islamist group Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took control of the Syrian capital Damascus on Sunday night, signaling the end of Assad’s rule of more than two decades. According to activists, 910 people have died since the rebel offensive began. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that there were 138 civilians among them, including several children. Russia, meanwhile, granted Assad and his family asylum on humanitarian grounds, according to the Kremlin.

Mixed reactions in the region

“We are seeing a big change in the region. Turkey has become stronger, Russia has become weaker, Iran has become weak,” the Wall Street Journal quoted a Syrian opposition politician as saying. “But it is the Syrians who will play a big role now, not like before,” he said.

Turkey called on the international community to support an orderly transition in Syria. Ankara bears a significant responsibility for ensuring that this process leads to greater stability and the return of refugees, Charles Lister, director of the Syria program at the Middle East Institute, told the newspaper. It must be about creating a new Syria and preventing a new civil war from breaking out.

Syria must remain safe and stable, and conflicts that “lead to chaos” must be avoided, said Jordan’s King Abullah II, according to the court. He respects the “will and decisions of the Syrian people.” Many Syrian refugees live in Jordan, which borders Syria. Egypt’s foreign ministry called for a comprehensive political process to create a “new phase of internal harmony” and peace.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry said the kingdom stands by the Syrians and their decisions “at this crucial stage in Syria’s history.” The unity and cohesion of Syria must be protected, it said. The Foreign Ministry in Qatar called for “national institutions and state unity” to be preserved in order to prevent the country from drifting into chaos. Qatar also stands “unwaveringly” behind the Syrian people and their decisions.

Biden: US soldiers remain in Syria

Meanwhile, outgoing US President Joe Biden announced that American soldiers will remain in Syria until further notice. The USA will not allow the terrorist militia IS to use the power vacuum there to expand its own influence again, said Biden. He also sees the fall of Assad as a consequence of his own foreign policy. “Assad’s main supporters were Iran, Hezbollah and Russia.” Recently, however, their support has collapsed, “because all three are much weaker today than they were when I took office,” said Biden.

The US government will support Syria’s neighboring countries, including Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Israel, if a threat comes from Syria during the transition phase, Biden said. The US President said he would speak to heads of state and government in the region in the coming days and send senior officials there. “This is a moment of significant risk and uncertainty.” But at the same time it is the best chance for Syrians in generations to shape their own future.

Israel moves troops into buffer zone

Israel, meanwhile, moved its forces to the buffer zone in the occupied Golan Heights and other locations, including on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon. “Since yesterday evening we have been engaged in combat operations on four fronts. The ground forces are fighting on four fronts: against terrorism in Judea and Samaria, in the Gaza Strip, in Lebanon, and last night we moved troops into Syrian territory,” said Israel’s Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi . “We will not allow any hostile force to position itself on our border,” emphasized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

According to activists, the Israeli Air Force carried out attacks in the area of ​​the Syrian capital Damascus after the fall of Assad. The military attacked near the military airport, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported. There were also attacks in eastern Syria. Accordingly, weapons depots of the Syrian military and pro-Iranian militias were hit. According to media reports, Israel’s air force had previously attacked a chemical weapons factory out of concern that the weapons could fall into the hands of rebels. The Israeli army did not comment.

Iran: Resistance against Israel continues

Meanwhile, Iran emphasized that the fall of Assad would not stop resistance against Israel. “The change of power in Syria could affect the further course of the resistance front against the Zionist regime (Israel) in the short term, but definitely not stop it,” said Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The resistance against Israel is “an ideological mission and not a classic war” and is therefore continuing, he told state broadcaster Irib.

War researcher: Putin’s credibility damaged

According to the US Institute for War Studies (ISW), the sudden fall of the Russian-backed Syrian ruler Assad also shakes the credibility of Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin among his allies. Putin protected authoritarian rulers in various countries from protests against their rule in order to promote his goal of a multipolar world order with the help of foreign partners and to undermine the supremacy of the USA, the institute writes in a current assessment of the situation.

“Russia’s inability or deliberate failure to strengthen Assad’s regime despite the rapid advance of opposition forces across the country will also damage Russia’s credibility as a reliable and effective security partner around the world,” the analysis said.