Bundestag election: Election researcher Jung: The Union has a “Merz problem”

With a view to the planned federal election, election researcher Matthias Jung attests to weaknesses that could jeopardize his success. Merz only has a “moderate image” among the population, to which he himself has contributed a lot and which makes it difficult for him to gain broad support, the board member of the elections research group told the “Tagesspiegel”.

Merz has “positioned himself in a pointedly conservative and economically liberal manner, instead of using the entire spectrum of the Union.” As a result of this programmatic narrowing, the Union has a “Merz problem,” said Jung.

Expert sees unpopularity among all candidates

Jung also referred to “a certain lack of control” that the candidate Merz brings with him. “This is a danger for himself and therefore for the Union’s chances of success.” Overall, the expert believes Merz has a good chance of becoming the next German Chancellor after the election planned for February 2025. “The probability that Merz will become Chancellor is quite high,” he said.

Jung was less optimistic about the chances of incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD). When asked whether it was realistic that Scholz could catch up in the last few meters, as in the 2021 election campaign, Jung said: “There is no reason why a specific development of an individual election campaign can be repeated.”

Already in 2021, Scholz did not enjoy “massive approval” from the population. Only the two competitors could have scored even less. Because of the unpopularity that he sees among all candidates for chancellor, he also expects a result of the “supposedly lesser evil” in 2025, said Jung.

Election researcher sees good chances for Habeck

The Green Party candidate Robert Habeck is most likely to benefit from this starting point. “Citizen voters who see themselves as neither conservative nor left-wing could opt for Habeck and the Greens, who present themselves relatively centrally.” The Greens are currently “the bogeyman” for many right-wing voters. But the party has great potential among centrist voters. In his view, the mobilization against the Greens has been “exhausted”.

If there were a federal election on Sunday, according to the latest ZDF “Political Barometer” from December 20th, the Union would get 31 percent, the AfD would get 19 percent, the SPD would get 15 percent and the Greens would get 14 percent. The FDP could miss out on entering parliament with 3 percent, as could the Left with 4 percent. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), founded this year, is 5 percent. Other surveys put the Union between 30 and 36 percent, the SPD between 14 and 18 percent and the Greens between 12 and 14 percent.

Election researcher Jung sees greater hurdles for the BSW than in the previous elections in East Germany, where it achieved double-digit results straight away. “In the state elections in September in the east, the BSW had a comparatively easy game. But in a federal election, 80 percent of the voters live in the west, where Wagenknecht has a harder time,” said Jung. It remains to be seen whether the new party will succeed in clearing the five percent hurdle. However, he considers it unlikely that both the BSW and the FDP and the Left could fail at this hurdle.