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Will the next Chancellor be called Merz? What the Germans expect
The CDU and CSU are well ahead in the surveys. But will Friedrich Merz actually be able to form a government in the end? Two thirds have a clear opinion on this.
It’s still a long time until February 23rd. It is also unclear whether and how the attack on the Christmas market in Magdeburg will change the political mood. And even if the CDU and CSU are ahead of the next strongest party by more than ten percentage points in all surveys, it is also impossible to predict which coalition will be formed. Nevertheless, Germans have a fairly clear idea of who will lead the next government.
66 percent expect Friedrich Merz to be chancellor
As a Forsa survey for stern showed, 66 percent of Germans believe that Friedrich Merz (CDU) will be the next Chancellor. 26 percent don’t believe that. 8 percent do not dare to make an assessment.
CDU and CSU voters are particularly convinced of the success of their own candidate for chancellor. 86 percent of them assume that Friedrich Merz will be the next head of government. The supporters of the FDP see it similarly (80 percent). Voters from the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance (65 percent) and the AfD (63 percent) are somewhat more skeptical.
It is striking that the majority of SPD and Green supporters also believe that the Union’s candidate for chancellor will prevail – and not Olaf Scholz or Robert Habeck. 62 percent of SPD voters and 61 percent of Green voters expect Friedrich Merz to be the next head of government.
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Traditionally, the candidate from the strongest faction is in pole position to form the next government. According to current surveys, an alliance between the CDU/CSU and the SPD would be possible. A coalition between the Union and the Greens is also considered possible, despite announcements to the contrary by CSU leader Markus Söder. The other parties have clearly ruled out merging with the AfD.
The data was collected by telephone by the market and opinion research institute Forsa for stern and RTL Deutschland on December 19 and 20, 2024. Database: 1004 respondents. Statistical margin of error: +/- 3 percentage points. The survey is therefore representative.
Source: Stern
I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.
