Friedrich Merz in Seeon: Where is the candidate for chancellor?

Nobody has to explain the magnitude of his task to Friedrich Merz. “This election in 2025, almost like 1949, will be dominated by fundamental political decisions,” said the Union’s candidate for chancellor on Sunday afternoon on the Petersberg in Bonn. It’s raining outside, but cake and whipped cream are being served inside the venerable Grand Hotel. Traditionally, the celebration of Konrad Adenauer’s birthday takes place here on January 5th.

Merz should say basic things in his speech, less election campaign, more world situation. And the candidate for chancellor uses the opportunity to eloquently evoke the historical moment and the spirit of Adenauer. Just like in 1949. Back then, says Merz, Konrad Adenauer had to fight for the pillars of the Federal Republic: the market economy, parliamentary democracy and Germany’s ties to the West. “Nothing was taken for granted,” says Merz. “Everything was ideologically contested.”

These three pillars of society are now in question again in 2025. “Fundamental questions are being discussed again,” says Merz. The next chancellor will have to fight against an unprecedented loss of trust in the state. “This may be the last chance for the political center,” Merz said months ago. “Let’s not be discouraged,” he said this afternoon near Bonn.

The Union wants to convince as many voters as possible and thus implement a “policy change for Germany”. Some in the party dream of absolute majorities. But the 46 days before the election are a long way off. There’s no need to panic, no, you’re far enough in the lead for that. “But Friedrich Merz is not yet at operating temperature,” says a Union member.

Doesn’t he have to fight for every voter now? Make appointments across the country? Giving interviews, appearing on podcasts and television shows? Send core messages? Do everything differently than Armin Laschet in 2021?

Wednesday morning, 9:35 a.m. in the Bavarian Seeon Monastery. CSU election campaign kicks off. It’s cold, gray and raining. Markus Söder is slowly becoming impatient. The assembled CSU leadership has been waiting in the entrance to the monastery for the candidate for chancellor for more than ten minutes. He drove up in a black limousine, but didn’t get out for ages. First there are jokes, then it gets quieter. “So! Is he even in the car?” asks Söder at some point.

The speakers are also slowly becoming restless. What is Merz doing there? This scene in the morning could hardly illustrate the concerns in the CSU more beautifully: Where is the Union’s candidate for chancellor in this election campaign? On this day, Friedrich Merz should get in the mood for the last 46 days until the election, for the hot phase.

It is said that the relationship between the two Union parties is actually better than it has been for a long time. On the one hand. Merz is “very, very close” to the CSU. That’s what CSU regional group leader Alexander Dobrindt said the day before in front of the monastery backdrop. On the other hand, Dobrindt also says: “It’s now about making a change in policy clear.”

In the monastery corridors you can hear this accusation, which you can only imagine behind Dobrindt’s friendly words, with greater volume: Merz must now increase the number of hits. He urgently needs two or three core messages. He needs to be more specific about what he wants. The program gives that, but the candidate doesn’t yet. Olaf Scholz has long been on all channels, as has Markus Söder. But who is the candidate here?

In fact, it was noticeable how much Merz had withdrawn during the Christmas period and at the beginning of the year. This was particularly well received in the party after the attack in Magdeburg: not too much outrage, not inflaming the mood excessively. But even after that, Merz remained remarkably quiet. In the CDU they attribute this to the Christmas break; people wanted some peace and quiet during this time.

But Christmas is now 14 days ago. From the event on Petersberg, the CDU’s start to the year, there was no message left that had any impact on the lives of citizens, no overarching idea for solving Germany’s misery, and no Merzian motto. Robert Habeck made the headlines with his demand to massively increase funding for defense.

To make matters worse, Merz’s first newspaper interview of the year sparked a heated debate about the possible expatriation of dual nationals who have committed criminal offenses. From what you hear: unintentional. SPD leader Saskia Esken spoke to Merz star then rejected his suitability for chancellor and accused him of turning people with two passports into second-class citizens, into Germans on probation. The CDU said he didn’t mean it that way. Once again the party has to declare the candidate.

Merz said in the interview that it should be “possible to revoke German citizenship if we recognize that we have made a mistake when it comes to people committing crimes.” The candidate for chancellor said this in connection with the attack in Magdeburg, but did not specify what he meant by it: Must every German with two passports remain unpunished in the future so as not to fear for their citizenship, or was he actually concerned with terrorist suspects? And what does “should be possible” mean? Shouldn’t a candidate for chancellor explain what he wants to make possible?

Markus Söder, of all people, filled the rhetorical void left by Merz in Seeon: “Anyone who is in favor of a caliphate and already has a different citizenship must have their passport revoked,” says the Bavarian Prime Minister. There is little room for interpretation, clear message, file closed. That’s what the Union would also like from Merz.

Added to this are the pollsters’ surveys, which are also known in Seeon: Without Merz as a candidate, but with Söder or Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst, the Union would supposedly have been in a better position for a long time.

Merz, the candidate, is practiced at giving the big picture its sound. You could experience this on the Petersberg. He sometimes becomes strangely imprecise when it comes to solutions. Strangely often he is said to have been misunderstood and changed his messages.

This was the case most recently at the beginning of December, when the SPD accused him of giving the Russian President an ultimatum. Merz rowed back without any need. In the end, hardly anyone knew what he actually wanted and how his course could now be distinguished from that of the Chancellor. Is he a falcon or a dove?

In this election campaign, Merz is threatened with the impression that he is often putting the brakes on exactly when a change in policy actually seems to be becoming visible. It wasn’t meant that way, instead of a change of mood.

This is also why the CSU is currently pushing so hard to exclude a black-green alliance. The Christian Socialists see it as an easy way to illustrate the change in policy without having to initiate real reforms. Despite all the theoretical need for change, the Germans don’t want that, according to the Christian Socialists. “With Robert Habeck and the Greens, no government work and no change of direction is possible,” emphasizes Markus Söder at the start in Seeon. Yet again.

You don’t necessarily have to say how to achieve the change of direction, that’s the CSU’s calculation, but you have to at least broadcast it. Both should not be missing.

At midday in the Albertisaal of the monastery, Dobrindt welcomed Friedrich Merz, “the future Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany,” as the head of the CSU regional group said, to a round of discussions with the Bavarian MPs. The parliamentarians clap, the candidate smiles, his hands folded in a victory pose. In front of the hall there is a photo wall with his portrait, sunglasses on his face. Then the MPs stand up and give a standing ovation.

The CSU expects more from him. According to current surveys, the party has around 45 percent in Bavaria; without it, the Union in Germany only has 25 percent. “We are the driving force,” said one MP previously. “Now Merz has to follow suit.” This day is important for the candidate, even if he started his car faux pas early in the morning.

The best thing he can do in Seeon is to ensure that he gets rid of the tiresome debate about the Greens. It escalated on this very day between Söder and Schleswig-Holstein’s Christian Democratic state father Daniel Günther. His solution: He thought about it over the Christmas period, especially about Robert Habeck’s economic policy. His “inner distance” has grown again, says Merz. Inner contemplation, time for reflection. Was that why it was so quiet?

Yes, this Friedrich Merz himself sometimes likes to rail against the Greens, but even after this day he prefers to keep the alliance a bit open, just like Boris Rhein in Hesse. For the time after the election, that may be sensible and wise in terms of power politics. But the candidate seems to be caught between two chairs, especially next to someone like Markus Söder.

You’re almost waiting for someone somewhere to say: Mr. Merz didn’t mean it that way.