Alexander Lukashenko: Forecast in Belarus sees him as the election winner

Alexander Lukashenko: Forecast in Belarus sees him as the election winner

Mock election in Belarus
Ruler Lukashenko is entering his seventh term in office in Belarus






There are no fair and free elections in Belarus. Ruler Lukashenko sees himself strengthened and wants to remain at the helm of the country for five more years. Its dependence on Russia is growing.

In the presidential election in Belarus, which has been criticized as a farce, ruler Alexander Lukashenko is, as expected, declared the winner for the seventh time after more than 30 years in power. After voting ended in the evening, state media broadcast post-election polls according to which the 70-year-old is said to have won the vote with 87.6 percent of the vote.

There were initially no results. The vote counting is underway. However, the forecast in the country criticized as Europe’s last dictatorship is considered almost identical to the official announcement of the results expected by the election management late in the evening. In Minsk there were initial congratulations on the “convincing election victory” from the ranks of the four competitors who supported Lukashenko and were therefore seen as mere extras.

In 2020, Lukashenko was declared the winner with 80.1 percent of the vote. According to the forecasts, it is said to have increased significantly again – with over 80 percent voter turnout. Around 6.9 million eligible voters were called to vote.

Expert: Numbers are fixed in advance – no relation to reality

“You have to know that the figures published in Belarus have nothing in common with reality,” said political scientist Valeri Karbalevich, who fled into exile abroad because of the danger to his life, to the German Press Agency. “The power apparatus determines the numbers in advance.” According to Karbalevich, in an election with alternative candidates, Lukashenko, who has been in power since 1994, would have had no chance of winning.

According to post-election surveys conducted by a state institute, 5.1 percent of voters voted for the “Against All” option on the ballot paper.

Lukashenko: Recognition by the West “completely doesn’t matter”

“Whether they recognize these elections or not, that’s a matter of taste. I don’t give a damn,” Lukashenko told reporters in Minsk in response to a question about the EU’s failure to recognize the vote. At the same time, he said that out of a sense of responsibility he would remain in power as long as those around him supported him.

Because the elections in the former Soviet republic are repeatedly subject to massive allegations of fraud, there have always been protests in the past. Lukashenko violently suppressed the largest mass protests to date after the 2020 election – with Russia’s help. According to the United Nations, 300,000 people have left Belarus since then. Many prominent opposition figures, including Maria Kolesnikova and Viktor Babariko, are in prison.

Human rights activists: More than 1,200 political prisoners

Human rights activists criticize the fact that more than 1,200 people are in political prison. Belarus is also the last country in Europe where the death penalty is still carried out – by shooting in the neck. Anyone who speaks critically in the country risks imprisonment. The media are brought into line, many independent news portals are blocked.

The EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas spoke in Brussels on Sunday evening of sham elections that were neither free nor fair. “The Belarusian people deserve a real say in who governs their country,” she said, according to a statement. She called on Lukashenko to “immediately and unconditionally release all political prisoners, over a thousand of whom are arbitrarily detained, including an employee of the European Union delegation.”

Opposition demands non-recognition of the election

The camp surrounding opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who lives in exile in the EU and who many believed won the vote in 2020, called on the international community not to recognize either the election or Lukashenko as president. The country is under sanctions not only because of political repression, but also because of its support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

Before the election, Lukashenko had repeatedly pardoned political prisoners – more than 200 in total. According to experts, this is primarily linked to the hope that the West will resume dialogue. At the press conference in Minsk, he again emphasized his willingness to resume contact.

Expert: More support for Lukashenko again

The political scientist Karbalevich sees a country in fear: Lukashenko’s apparatus fears new protests and therefore had representatives in institutions collect support signatures before the vote. The KGB secret service, already feared in Soviet times because of its brutality, has a tight grip on Belarus. And voters are also scared because they are threatened with criminal prosecution if they read critical information on their cell phones, Karbalevich told the German Press Agency.

Lukashenko wants to gain fresh legitimacy with the vote now scheduled for winter. Actually the regular date would have been in the summer.

Lukashenko is currently benefiting from a certain consolidation of society because the critics are gone. In addition, he is portraying himself as a protector of peace and stability, especially with a view to the war in neighboring Ukraine. “He also has support from many who were against him in 2020, but who were also pro-Russian back then and are now back in line,” explained Karbalevich. Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin did not abandon Lukashenko at the time, despite the hopes of many demonstrators in Belarus.

High dependence on Russia

The expert Karbalevich expects that Lukashenko, who has recently been plagued by health problems, will want to remain in power until the end of his life. The chances are not bad, “because whoever is friends with Russia gets gas and oil at low prices and the nuclear protective shield.” Belarus is now also doing better economically because the country’s companies produce for Russia’s war economy.

The price for Lukashenko’s retention of power is increasing economic, financial and political dependence on Putin. “But Belarus has less and less sovereignty,” said Karbalevich. Nevertheless, because of the strong resistance in Minsk, he sees no acute danger of Russia annexing itself to its neighbors.

Watch the video above: Belarusian dictator Lukashenko has massed 20,000 soldiers on the Ukrainian border. Russia correspondent Rainer Munz suspects a threatening backdrop.

DPA

Ulf Mauder, jek

Source: Stern

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