Trend barometer
To Aschaffenburg: Union loses in current survey, AfD is adding
Copy the current link
According to a new survey, Friedrich Merz did not work for a short -term plans for a stricter immigration policy after the act of Aschaffenburg. On the contrary.
Does the Merz strategy for the Union parties backfire? After the knife attack by Aschaffenburg, the candidate for the Chancellor had presented a five-point plan for a stricter migration policy last week, accompanied by an equally intensified rhetoric. The CDU/CSU parliamentary group wants to bring and enforce the corresponding applications to the Bundestag as soon as possible-and, if necessary, accept a majority for AfD votes.
According to the Forsa trend barometer, the Union cannot score with the plans for the voters. In the week average between 21 and January 27, the CDU/CSU lose one point there and fall to 30 percent. This week, however, Forsa also looked at the week of the week to emphasize a possible effect of Aschaffenburg on the surveys.
The result: On Tuesday and Wednesday, CDU/CSU were at the level of the previous week. In the days after the assassination attempt, from Thursday to Monday, however, approval fell to 28 percent. The effect is cushioned again in the week average. At the Chancellor’s preference, Friedrich Merz can improve its value by two points from 23 to 25 percent compared to the previous week. According to Aschaffenburg, however, the approval values went back after an increase at the start of the week.
At this point, our editorial team has integrated content from Datawrapper GmbH.
Due to their data protection settings, this content was not invited to protect their privacy.
The AfD, on the other hand, was able to grow in the week average and, especially in the days to Aschaffenburg. At the beginning of the week, the right -wing populists were still sagged by one percentage point. Chancellor candidate Alice Weidel remained at the value of the previous week at the Chancellor's preference in the week average. Weidel was able to grow again from Thursday after an interim loss.
The SPD also gained consent points from Thursday and thus remained on average at the level of the previous week. At the beginning of the week, the Social Democrats had also slightly lost approval. The value of Olaf Scholz at the Chancellor's preference remained unchanged throughout the week and, as in the previous week, was 16 percent.
Despite the short-term losses: According to Forsa, almost 60 percent of those surveyed expect that a tougher gait in migration policy-similar to that of US President Donald Trump-increases the chances of the CDU for a good performance in the Bundestag election. 31 percent think that voters are more driven by the AfD.
20 percent think that immigration and refugee policy should be made by the parties the most important topic in the Bundestag election campaign. On the other hand, 79 percent find that there are important or more important topics and problems.
Methodology: Forsa surveyed for the RTL/N-TV trend barometer 2504 people between 21 and January 27, 2025. The statistical fault tolerance is +/- 2.5 percentage points. For the opinions on immigration policy, 1007 people were interviewed between the 24th and January 27th. Statistical fault tolerance: +/- 3 percentpunted.
In our live ticker for the Bundestag election 2025 you will find current news on the early new elections every day.
Source: Stern

I have been working in the news industry for over 6 years, first as a reporter and now as an editor. I have covered politics extensively, and my work has appeared in major newspapers and online news outlets around the world. In addition to my writing, I also contribute regularly to 24 Hours World.