Survey: AfD for gay voters supposedly strong – doubts about representativity

A few weeks before the Bundestag election, the opinion research institutes carry out a Sunday question about the other to determine the voter intentions. However, sexual orientation is generally not taken into account in these election surveys.

This criticizes the dating platform, which is aimed at gay and bisexual men as well as transgender, queers and non-binary people. The fact that this group is not queried separately in election surveys lead to a “large gap in the understanding of the electoral preferences” by LGBTQ people.

Romeo therefore sent a message to his users with the request to take part in an internal election survey on the Bundestag election on February 23. 60,560 users followed this call.

“Although Romeo is primarily a dating app, we believe that the large range within a wide variety of social groups enables us to collect important data,” says the platform. The aim is to give users of the app a voice and to “contribute well -founded social discussions”.

A party is a favorite in the survey: the alternative for Germany, AfD. 27.9 percent of the users would vote for the right outside party. The Greens follow 19.9 percent, the CDU/CSU with 17.6 percent and the SPD with 14.2 percent. The left, the BSW and the FDP are behind it, while “other” come to 7.3 percent.

There are clear differences between the age groups. The AfD reaches 34.7 percent among 18 to 24 year olds, but it is almost 20 percent for those over 60. The SPD has 20.8 percent in this age group – only 6.4 percent for the youngest. The left, on the other hand, is the second most popular party among 18- to 24-year-old Romeo users at 19.2 percent.

The high encouragement for the AfD is likely to surprise many. The party with Alice Weidel has a lesbian party leader who lives with a woman and raises children together. In the past, however, the party itself has given trans- or queer-anti-queer statements.

The survey not only has one catch, but several.

The first and probably greatest doubts as to whether the survey is representative at all. Romeo admits that the method is based on a self -selecting sample. Send an in-app message with a link to participate in all users in the respective country. Anyone who is interested can participate anonymously. “We only ask about the age and the election intentions.”

Romeo emphasizes that this method is often used, but is not suitable for statistically precise election forecasts. In addition, lesbian women are not represented on Romeo, so that the survey does not reflect the election intentions of all homo- or bisexuals.

AfD expert Andreas Hövermann is also skeptical. As early as spring 2024, he commented on a similar Romeo survey. A large number of participants is not a criterion for a good and representative survey, especially with such a special target group, he said “Buzzfeed News Germany”.

Romeo also admits that manipulation of the survey cannot be excluded. “While we do not share the links outside the app, we cannot rule out that they will be passed on.” The platform’s survey partner is working on preventing multi -venue.

Doubts about the results of the Romeo survey also sat a separate election survey by the LGBT online magazine in December. Here the Greens were at the forefront with 44 percent, followed by the Left Party (16.2 percent) and the SPD (15.2 percent). This survey is also not representative and theoretically influenced, as “Queer” notes.

Romeo also carried out similar election surveys in other countries, which also showed a tendency towards right parties. In Austria in September last year, right -wing populist FPÖ was 29.3 percent ahead. In France, the right -wing emile nationally reached almost 28 percent in June 2024 and was only just behind the left Nouveau Front Populaire. In the UK, on ​​the other hand, a different picture: Here the Social Democratic Labor Party led almost 45 percent.