Sunday question: Migration debate brings hardly any movement in surveys

The violent debate about migration and voting with the AfD has hardly any change in surveys for the Bundestag election. If the Bundestag election was already the next Sunday, the Union would come to 30 percent of the vote, according to the ZDF polite barometer. This is a minimal improvement by one point compared to the previous week. The AfD therefore loses slightly and comes to 20 percent (minus one percentage point), the SPD stagnates at 15 percent.

According to the representative survey of the research group, minimal growth of one point there was elections for the Greens, which are now on par with the SPD, and for the left, which can hope for the re -entry into parliament at 6 percent. However, it would not be enough for FDP and BSW, which is still 4 percent. The data was collected from Tuesday to Thursday of this week.

Migration debate apparently did not harm Union

According to the votes initiated by the Union, two applications and a draft law for immigration limitation in the Bundestag, the parties had eagerly awaited the surveys. The fact that Union Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) had accepted a majority with votes from the AfD had been sharply criticized by the SPD, the Greens and the left. At the weekend there were large demonstrations in several cities.

The Union does not seem to have harmed the debate with a view to the Bundestag election on February 23. The ARD Germany trend also clearly saw the CDU and CSU with 31 percent and a plus of one percentage point. Here the AfD also slightly increased to 21 percent, the SPD unchanged 15 percent. In a survey by the opinion research institute YouGov, the SPD was able to increase by three points to 18 percent, but the Union remained a stable power with unchanged 29 percent. The second strongest force was also the AfD with 22 percent.

Election surveys are generally affected with uncertainties. Among other things, waning party bindings and more and more short -term election decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes the weighting of the data collected. Basically, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not forecasts on the election outcome.