Hamburg: These are the five most important teachings from the election

There was no longer for a long time: Social Democrats who are cheering in their arms. Just one week after the historical defeat in the Bundestag election, the SPD won the election of the citizens with 33.7 percent. This is significantly less than five years ago, but in view of the circumstances a real success.

Even before the first results arrive at the Elbe, euphoric “The SPD!” Calls through the jam-packed market hall, a popular concert location in the city center, resounds, where the SPD celebrates its election evening. In the first forecasts, the Hamburg comrades are completely out of the house, cheering and applauded with solemn certainty: the SPD continues, the red bar is clear.

The party could now even choose between a green or black coalition partner-if its re-elected mayor Peter Tschenscher had not promised a continuation of red-green.

At the same time, the AfD hardly manages to improve its clear result of 2020. The 8.2 percent are less than what the party hoped for.

Otherwise, Hamburg confirms the trend set on February 23: FDP and BSW do not make it into the new citizens, while the resurrected left -wing has a local record result. These are conclusions that can be drawn for federal politics.

The Hamburgers were hardly impressed by the basic populist mood. They did not want to change, but have confirmed the reigning government.

On the one hand, this is of course because Hamburg is doing well. According to a survey before the election, almost 60 percent of people described the economic situation in the city as good. That was almost four times as much as in the national average. There is also an urban, social liberal milieu in the city.

But beyond these specific circumstances, the Senate under Tschenscher has obviously also made its work well. The satisfaction values ​​for the coalition are also high because it did not argue publicly and maintained fair dealings with each other. That would be the most important teaching from the Hamburg election for the future federal government.

Happiness, SPD? At least not in Hamburg: The election in the Hanseatic city will raise the disillusioned comrades again. Even if it is the second worst result in the history of the state party.

But given the national trends, the result is neat. As previously Brandenburg’s SPD Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke, Mayor Tschentscher had been looking for the greatest possible distance from the overall party in the election campaign. In the final sprint, he refrained from support from Berlin and preferred to celebrate the election campaign with Malu Dreyer, the popular ex-government head of Rhineland-Palatinate.

The party leadership in Berlin is unlikely to prevent the victory in Hamburg as evidence that the Social Democrats can still win in. In its current constitution, the SPD can use any kind of psychological strengthening – even if for the ongoing explorations in the capital with the Union.

The AfD wanted to be in Hamburg in two digits and thus double its 2020 result of 5.3 percent. But the bar of the forecast stopped at a good eight percent. The reasons for the weakness of the AfD are also to be found in the particular situation of the city state of Hamburg as in the stability of the middle. SPD, CDU and Greens still come together to a good three quarters of the voters.

Otherwise, good governing is bad for the AfD – and this in a city in which 40 percent of people have a migration background and there are problems with internal security in this context. But although the topic also dominated this national election campaign, it could not exploit the extreme rights. Means: There is no automatism for the AfD.

The old political rule applies to the left: Once it goes, it runs. At the latest with the common majority of Union, AfD and FDP in the Bundestag, the party has a social mobilization instrument again: anti -fascism. In addition, there was a concentration on realistic social issues such as affordable living, which is a growing problem, especially in an expensive big city like Hamburg.

The left may feel confirmed after its success in the Bundestag election. This applies above all to the encouragement among young people. At the same time, the split BSW, which never really occurs in Hamburg, is also weakened.

And yet: Hamburg is not Berlin. Also compared to most other federal states, the city acts like a political planet: Already in the Bundestag election, Hamburg and Bremen were among the few red dabs on a result card, which is largely black in the west and in the east.

Tschenscher is in a long tradition. After the end of the war, the SPD provided the first mayor 14 times, only three times the CDU – most recently in 2011, until a certain Olaf Scholz won the absolute majority and took the town hall again.

The still Federal Chancellor now has to live with the fact that he led the SPD into an existential crisis at which Hamburg does not change anything. On the contrary: So far, many Social Democrats may have held the choice of personnel from leading the necessary personnel debate. But you no longer have to take these considerations.