Citizenship election: SPD wins Hamburg-election-CDU leaves Greens behind

The SPD is the clear winner of the citizens’ election in Hamburg. A week after their clever in the Bundestag election, the Social Democrats in the city state were able to assert themselves as the strongest force, as the state election management said according to a simplified count of the votes cast for the parties. The CDU displaced the Greens from second place. The left became double digits for the first time. The AfD could also improve easily. In contrast, the FDP and BSW clearly missed the five percent hurdle. The turnout increased significantly to 67.7 percent after 63.0 percent five years ago.

How exactly did the choice of citizens go out?

However, the previous government partners lost more than five percentage points. The Social Democrats of the first mayor Peter Tschentscher came to 33.5 percent (2020: 39.2). The Greens of the second mayor Katharina Fegebank also lost to 18.5 percent after their record of 24.2 percent five years ago. The CDU with top candidate Dennis Thering, on the other hand, recovered from a historical slump, it increased to 19.8 percent (11.2). The left increased its proportion of votes to 11.2 percent (2020: 9.1 percent). The AfD improved to 7.5 percent (2020: 5.3 percent). A temporary official end result is only expected for Monday evening.

Who didn’t make it into the citizens?

The FDP clearly failed with 2.3 percent (4.97) and 2020 in the five percent hurdle. This is a negative record for the liberals in a choice of citizens. The alliance Sahra Wagenknecht started for the first time in the election of the citizens and did not make it to Hamburg town hall at 1.8 percent. Both parties had also missed moving into the Bundestag a week earlier. The VOLT European Charger achieved a respectable success. She passed FDP and BSW and came to 3.3 percent.

What does the election outcome mean for government formation?

A continuation of red-green on the Elbe is the most likely variant. Tschentscher wants to speak to the Greens first, but then also to the CDU. He said in the ZDF “Journal today”: “I am very happy that we can keep this course in Hamburg that we can continue working with a strong red-green government.” A vast majority of Hamburgers are satisfied with the work of red-green. “That’s why it is my first option to continue this course.” SPD and Greens together have 70 of the 121 seats.

But there are also difficult topics to talk to the Greens. Tschentscher called traffic issues and the role of security and migration in the city. If it is not possible to get together here, a second democratic option is “not so bad”

The Greens assume a continuation of their alliance with the SPD. Fegebank (48) said in the ARD about the talks announced by Tschenscher that she took the mayor at the word.

CDU hopes for red-black

But the CDU also has hopes. CDU top candidate Thering (40) said his party was available for a stable government. In the ARD he added that he was looking forward to exploratory talks with the SPD. It helps Hamburg if the same partners would rule as in the federal government. SPD and CDU are expected to come to 71 of the 121 seats.

Majority rejects red-black

Such an alliance would not be well received by the Hamburgers. According to a survey by the research group elections, 52 percent of the eligible red-black rejects. 58 percent of those surveyed consider a coalition of the SPD and Greens to be a good solution. The opinion researchers asked their questions a week before the election.

Election researcher: Federal politics had little relevance

According to investigations by the research group elections, 72 percent of Hamburgers, despite the time proximity to the Bundestag election, was more important to state politics for election decision than federal politics. The SPD of Tschenscher had scored there with “expertise, high reputation and an outstanding top candidate”. Union and AfD have “large structural deficits” in the major city. About 83 percent of the respondents also believe that the AfD “does not fit a cosmopolitan city like Hamburg”. The left, on the other hand, was able to score above average in young voters.

What does the Hamburg election mean for federal politics?

A week after the Bundestag election, the meaningfulness beyond Hamburg is limited. In the Federal Council-Hamburg has 3 of the 69 votes-nothing changes if it stays with red-green. In addition to Hamburg, only Lower Saxony is ruled by the SPD and the Greens.

The Hamburg SPD was able to decouple a bit of the national trend and is twice as strong in the city state as in the new Bundestag. SPD boss Lars Klingbeil emphasized the silent governance of the SPD and the Greens without a dispute. In the ARD “Daily Topics” he said: “The voters reward that.” Chancellor Olaf Scholz – Tschentscher’s predecessor in the Hamburg town hall – congratulated the election winner via X.

CDU, Left and AfD are also looking forward to voting growth at the state level. “The comeback continues,” said left-wing federal manager Jan van Aken. AfD boss Tino Chrupalla spoke on the one hand of a “huge success”. He also admitted difficult conditions for his party in Hamburg in the ARD.

If the Union and the SPD come together in the federal government into a coalition, you will no longer have to consider state elections until well into the coming year. In 2026, state elections in five federal states follow around 23 million inhabitants, namely in Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. On Monday, the explorations between the Union and the SPD should continue at the federal level.