Ukraine war: US military aid-what this means for Kyiv

Without the US aids, it always said that Ukraine is unable to survive in the Russian attack war. Now the US government under President Donald Trump has suspended support to put pressure on the Ukrainian head of state Wolodymyr Selenskyj after the scandal in the White House. The message arrived: Selenskyj reacts quickly and approaches Trump. What does the suspension of US aid mean – not only for Ukraine, but also for Germany and Europe? Here are some questions and answers:

What is not delivered now and what is the scope?

The scope of the stopped deliveries is not known for the time being. Trump had taken a permit from his predecessor Joe Biden to deliver weapons from US arsenals worth the equivalent of the equivalent of over 3.7 billion euros. According to the media, the stop arranged should affect all US equipment that has not yet been in Ukraine. So also weapons that are currently being transported by plane or ship or are located in transit areas in Poland.

What exactly was stopped on the way to Ukraine is also not known. According to the Pentagon, ammunition for the Himars multiple rocket launchers, tank defense weapons and artillery grenades was recently delivered. At the end of December, the package still approved included ammunition for anti-aircraft systems and shoulder-supported Stinger flight defense missiles. Even before the Trump arrangement, the weapon flow from the United States threatened to dry up due to a lack of new packages.

Also end secret service information from Washington and Starlink?

It is unclear whether the United States will also post the transfer of its reconnaissance data. One attitude would be a bitter blow for the Ukrainian armed forces. Precision strikes behind the front line on logistics hubs and rods of the Russian army would make it difficult. The Ukrainian air defense is also strongly dependent on US data on US data, for example via rocket starts and the strategic bombers of Russia.

The use of the Starlink systems for internet connections via satellite, which is particularly important for the front area, at least does not seem to be at risk. Trump consultant and starlink owner Elon Musk promptly denied reports that Washington is threatening to switch off. The operation of around 25,000 Starlink terminals is currently being financed by Poland. And according to the Polish Ministry of Digitization, this financing is secured at least until the end of September.

What does that mean for Ukraine?

It is not the case that the front now collapses immediately because the country still has reserves. However, the news from Washington for the fighting spirit of the Ukrainian defenders is a difficult blow.

When the US Congress blocked new Ukraine aids at the beginning of 2024, the industrial city of Awdijiwka fell in Russian hands in the eastern Ukrainian area. The well -developed front line was no longer kept due to the lack of artillery grenades, and the Ukrainian troops were pushed back by some dozen kilometers. This time the consequences could be much more dramatic.

As President Selenskyj explained a month ago, a good 30 percent of weapons and technology used by the Ukrainian army come from the USA. In the case of weapons itself, the US share was even 40 percent, while Europeans have so far contributed less than 30 percent. The Ukrainians and their remaining allies are unable to compensate for a failure of the US aid.

How long can the country attacked by Russia hold out?

So far, experts in estimates have assumed that the Ukrainian army could continue to fight in the current intensity until summer. At the latest then the ammunition would go out to you, especially among US weapon systems, such as the Himars rocket advertisers or the patriot flight defense. Strokes on Russian logistics in the hinterland would become less common; And in return, Russian rockets and drones could easily break through the Ukrainian air defense.

If the US aid fails for a long time without replacement, stronger front shifts with drastic consequences are no longer excluded for the Ukrainian head of state itself. So far, Selenskyj categorically rejected a resignation requested in the USA.

How does Kyiv react to the threats?

Selenskyj tried to smooth the waves. So he expressed his regret about the scandal in the White House and explained that it was time to “put things in order”. In addition, he explicitly emphasized his endeavor for a quick termination of the war. The recognizable will to peace is one of the prerequisites for the resumption of arms deliveries, the White House had made it clear.

Selenskyj also accommodates Trump in another point: So he declared his willingness to sign the raw material agreement forced by the US President. With these concessions, Kyiv hopes to avert the worst case of the complete departure of Washington.

What does that mean for Russia?

Russia has long been calling for an end to western arms deliveries to Ukraine – as a prerequisite for a termination of bloodshed. Therefore, Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskow welcomed the announcement from Washington to hire military aid. This also increases the pressure on Selenskyj for a negotiation solution.

From the perspective of the Institute of War Studies (ISW) in Washington, the Russian army could now take massive use of the situation in Washington. “The termination of US military aid and the financial support to strengthen the Ukrainian armaments industry could help to tip the balance of the war and to give Russia greater advantages on the battlefield in Ukraine, which would increase the likelihood of Russian victory in Ukraine,” says ISW analysis. The experts emphasized that the previous help had contributed to preventing Russian success.

Specifically, Russia could now conquer long targets such as the cities of Pokrowsk, Cschassiw Jar and Kupjansk. The Ukrainian bridgehead in the Russian area of ​​Kursk is also at risk of being completely lost. After the invasion of there in early August, the Ukrainian troops are already under increasing pressure.

Can Europeans step in?

So far, Germany and Great Britain have had the main burden of military help among the European countries, as Ukraine Support Tracker shows. Other large states – Spain, Italy and partly also France – were reserved.

The military chief coordinator of the German Ukraine-Hilfe, Major General Christian Freding, was in Ukraine in February and then said that with the necessary will, Europeans could compensate for US aid. They already provided 60 percent of military aid with Canada. In the case of critical ammunition, the Europeans and other partners even provided 80 percent of the material according to Ukrainian information. In addition to more air defense systems, the Ukrainians, according to Joy, also need words for their 100 fighting brigades more armored battle vehicles – as a replacement for failures.

Are there any specific plans of the EU?

At an EU special summit on Thursday, the 27 heads of state and government want to speak over a billion-dollar defense plan that EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed. This provides for a new fund of 150 billion euros to increase defense investments in the EU – including military aid for Ukraine.

From the Leyen hopes that their proposal, together with private capital and additional funds for the European investment bank, could mobilize almost 800 billion euros for defense.

However, the summit could also show inconsistencies within the EU with regard to Ukraine, because far -reaching decisions in the EU must be made unanimously. The Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his Slovak counterpart Robert Fico have already signaled their resistance to a joint declaration of summit in favor of Ukraine. Both support Trump’s course in the Ukraine conflict and maintain close relationships with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

What does the United States out of Germany mean?

As the largest arms supplier of Ukraine after the United States, the view is primarily aimed at Germany. Already in the election campaign there was an additional three billion euros for Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz only wanted to allow us to be subjected to the debt brake. The Union didn’t want that.

The Union and SPD now advise their exploratory talks about the formation of government after the election about how additional billions can be made for Ukraine and national defense. The conversation is a special fund in the three -digit billion dollar area and the reform of the debt brake.

What are the consequences of additional Ukraine aid for the Bundeswehr?

If the help for Ukraine is expanded, industrial capacities for upgrading the Bundeswehr may have to be redirected. Further deliveries are currently announced to Ukraine, including 20 rifle tanks and more than 20 combat tanks, and three combined fire units of the Iris-T air defense system. In addition, the type of pard, wheel shadows and armored shadows, 300 protected and armored transport vehicles and “lots of ammunition” to Kiev are to go to Kiev.