Dangerous escalation: Keaschmir focal point: Change of shooting at the border

The tensions between India and Pakistan continue to rock up. In the night of Friday there was a change of boundaries between the border guards of both countries, as it was said from Pakistani secret service circles. The incident occurred in the de facto border between the parts of the controversial Kashmir region controlled by the two countries. After a terrorist attack in the Indian part of the region, a few days ago, concern is growing against a dangerous situation: the risk of escalation is “enormously high,” said one expert.

According to the Pakistani secret service, there was no death or injured in the incident in the Kashmir region. The Indian newspaper “The Indian Express” also reported a military source of shots on the control line. In the past, the border region has more often occurred between soldiers, but it has been comparatively quiet there for some years.

Sign for confrontation

Since the latest terrorist attack, however, the signs have been confronted with the difficult relationship between the two neighboring countries. Armed attackers killed 26 people in a popular holiday area near the city of Pahangam on Tuesday – mostly Indian tourists. The government in Neu-Delhi accuses Pakistan of participating in the terrorist attack, which the neighboring state rejects.

Since then, both nuclear powers have mutually covered with punitive measures, citizens have the other side and reduce their diplomatic relationships. “The world should be very concerned about the current India Pakistan crisis,” wrote the renowned South Asia expert Michael Kugelman on the online platform X. The governments of both countries are under pressure.

For many, it is no surprise that the origin of the new tensions is once more in the western Himalayas. Kashmir has been the central dispute between the two nuclear powers for decades. The origins of the conflict go back to the colonial period. In 1947 the British released the Indian subcontinent into independence and divided it in India and the new state of Pakistan for Muslims. The violent division continues to feed a bitter rivalry to this day. Since their independence, both countries have waged three wars against each other, two of them around cashmere.

There were always phases of relaxation. However, the latest attack was one of the bloodiest for many years and endangers the fragile ceasefire between the two countries. Experts are now particularly stirring India’s decision as serious to suspend the so-called Indus water contract with the neighbor. The contract regulates the water use of both sides of the Indus and its tributaries.

Pakistan called the suspension of the contract an action and threatened to counter -measures. Islamabad closed its airspace for Indian flights and exposed the trade with the neighboring country. Islamabad also said that it reserves the right to suspend important agreements on relaxation. This also includes the 1972 Shimla Agreement, which provides for the peaceful cleanup of all controversial questions between the two.

Christian Wagner, expert for India and Pakistan at the Science and Politics Foundation, speaks of a “new escalation level”. Pakistan has indicated in the past that with the reduction of the water supply, which is threatened with the suspension of the Indus water contract, a red line for the use of nuclear weapons could have been exceeded. The fact that Pakistan questioned the Shimla agreement is a dangerous escalation of the situation.

Beats and opposites feared

It is feared that India’s military could attack alleged bases of terrorist groups or other destinations after the recent attack in Pakistan. Pakistan could then respond to Indian goals with opposites. Even smaller skirmishes on the border course could escalate quickly – with unmistakable consequences.

“Unfortunately, it can be assumed that we see another military escalation,” said Wagner. It would also be possible that military reactions could follow in a limited framework without leaving the conflict completely out of hand. However, a deterioration in the already tense relationships can be expected in any case.