The preliminary round of the 2024 European Championship ends with four matches on Wednesday. But it is already clear that the respective halves of the tournament tree could not be more different.
No, it couldn’t be much harder for the hosts at the European Championship. While Germany was quite lucky to qualify for the European Championship round of 16 as group winners on Sunday, the much harder half of the tournament tree now awaits Julian Nagelsmann’s team. Denmark, the 2021 European Championship semi-finalist, will kick things off on Saturday, but has not been very convincing so far. But the other teams that have been confirmed so far are also tough: As the tournament progresses, the Germans could face the so far convincing Spain (quarter-finals) as well as France with superstar Kylian Mbappé or Portugal with veteran Cristiano Ronaldo (semi-finals). These teams have all already been confirmed for the lower tournament tree, and the three other teams will decide on Wednesday. Theoretically, Belgium could then also move into the lower tree as second in Group E and become a big hurdle for France in the round of 16.
The top half of the tournament tree, for which England and Italy, as well as Austria and Switzerland, have qualified so far, looks much easier. While the latter two teams have been quite convincing so far, the reigning European champions from Italy and top favourites for the European Championship, England, have been rather modest in their performances so far. Italy and Switzerland will meet each other directly in the round of 16, while England and Austria are still waiting for their opponents.
The Austrians could be the main beneficiaries, as they will probably face Turkey or the Czech Republic in the round of 16 and will also face an apparently easier opponent in a possible quarter-final. They could only cross paths with Italy or England in the semi-final. It is the reward for a surprising victory in Group D, in which Ralf Rangnick’s team left France, the Netherlands and Poland behind.
Which third-placed teams qualify for which tree will not be decided until the evening after the main round has ended. Only Croatia, because of their worst record, can no longer reach the finals in third place. Hungary must hope that the Czech Republic does not win the direct duel against Turkey. If they do, the victory would have to be by at least three goals for Turkey to have the worse goal difference. It is already certain that the Croatians’ elimination will also see the Netherlands slip into the top half – and they may face England directly.
At the European Championships there is often a weaker tournament tree
A look at the history of the European Championship shows that there has always been a stronger and a weaker tournament tree. At the 2016 European Championship, the first European Championship with a round of 16, Portugal seized the opportunity. While France, England, Germany, Italy and Spain eliminated each other in the lower tournament tree, Portugal faced Croatia, Poland and Wales in the upper tree. It was only in the final that a big caliber team, France, awaited them, who the Portuguese defeated 1-0 in extra time to become European champions for the first time.
The 2021 European Championship was completely different – and not just because it was held during the corona pandemic. Here, too, the upper tournament tree was the supposedly easier one. The eventual finalist England faced a modest German team in the round of 16, followed by Ukraine in the quarter-finals and Denmark in the semi-finals. The lower tree, on the other hand, was full of favorites with Italy, Belgium, Portugal, Spain, the then reigning world champions France and runners-up Croatia. Italy narrowly beat Austria, Belgium and Spain and defeated England in the final on penalties.
Source: Stern
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