Blue dollar, in the spotlight: the causes of the decline and the analysts’ projections

He blue dollar fell sharply this week, according to a survey by Scope in the caves of the city. In this way, the quotation It has fallen in three of the last four weeks, so the gap with the official exchange rate has narrowed by almost 15 percentage points in the last month.

This Friday the currency cut a streak of three falls in a row, rebounding $5 and ending the round in the $1,245However, compared to last Friday, it has accumulated a decline of $20.

In this way, the gap With the wholesale dollar, regulated by the Central Bank (BCRA), the week ended in the 29%when last week it had done so at 31.5% and when on August 20 it was at 43.5%.

The fall that the blue experienced in recent days was due, above all, to the The fall of the financial ones (driven by the intervention of the Central Bank and the dollars that come in through money laundering), which, in part, drag down the price of the illegal billaccording to city analysts.

In addition, some data from the macro help to stabilize the exchange rate situation, such as falling wholesale inflation, the recovery of some sectors and the announcement by the Ministry of the Economy that it already has the foreign currency to pay the debts for 2025.

Blue dollar: the causes of its marked decline

The economist Federico Glustein He comments, in conversation with this media, that the fall of the blue is due to the fall of the financial ones that, in part, drag down the price of the illegal bill.

“We have a MEP on the verge of $1,200. Added to the Fed’s rate cut, which improves the position of emerging countries with respect to the dollar, it motivates our country to receive foreign currency in search of a higher rate despite the greater risk and some macro data and political actions that help stabilize the exchange situation, such as falling wholesale inflation, the recovery of some sectors and what the economy announced that foreign currency had for debt payments for 2025,” he says.

For its part, for Leo Anzalonedirector of the Center for Political and Economic Studies (CEPEC) the fall of the blue dollar “has multiple explanations.” For the strategist, “it may be that there are people and companies getting rid of dollars to meet obligations,” another part may be due to the strengthening of emerging currencies that should be seen after the Fed rate cut, in line with what Glustein has suggested.

However, Anzalone recalls that the one from blue It is a marginal market, so it is recommended to “closely monitor financial dollars and, above all, the complex dynamics of the Central Bank’s reserves.”

The blue dollar/MEP relationship

Martin Mazza, Director of MM Investments, explains in statements to this media that the blue dollar and the MEP dollar are highly correlated, and in an ideal scenario both exchange rates tend to converge. However, when the spread is significant, arbitrage opportunities arise.

“These opportunities are accessible to some, but not to all, as the blue dollar represents an informal market for the purchase and sale of currencies,” says Mazza. In recent months, the blue dollar has been significantly higher than the MEP dollar, a difference that has no clear explanation, according to the analyst.

Mazza suggests that in a recent talk he attended, the case of an interview between Alejandro Fantino and Javier Milei was mentioned, where the discrepancy between the blue dollar and the MEP was discussed. And it was Milei himself who pointed out that “some money launderers sell dollars in the blue market at a higher exchange rate (for example, at $1,300) and then buy in the MEP at a lower value ($1,250), benefiting from arbitrage.” By selling more dollars in the blue market, supply increases and that puts downward pressure on the price.

On the other hand, he comments that the floor The main reason for this type of operation seems to be the MEP exchange rate, which, by the way, has just broken through $1,200, and which is influenced by various economic variables. Thus, and according to what was mentioned above, it would be natural for the blue dollar rate to converge to the MEP exchange rate.