Polls vs bets between Kamala and Trump: a day favorable to the Republican

Polls vs bets between Kamala and Trump: a day favorable to the Republican

Fortune tellers, octopuses, coins, whirligigs, there are countless instruments that are used to predict who will occupy the White House starting next January 20. The two main social mechanisms to try to see if we will have – for the first time – a “Mrs. President” or a “Mr. President”are the surveys and the results of the betting houses. Starting today and twice a day, Ámbito.com will publish the main results – without adding any opinion – so that readers are aware of the most probable results and can thus form their decisions with the best information.

The surveys

The political failure of individual pollsters is proverbial; However, in the aggregate the surveys have been much more accurate. This does not mean that survey aggregators are free of bias (via the weight they give to different results and consultants).

In 2002 Real Clear Politics became the first North American poll aggregator, being recognized based on its results for the 2004 election and in 2008 it was followed by FiveThirtyEight, which since last year has been – through abcNews – under the control of “The Walt Disney Co. ”

Based on their historical predictions we could say that CPR has presented a bias towards the center right (Republicans) and 5.38 towards the center left (Democrats).

One point to keep in mind is that in the US there is no “election ban”, so we will continue to provide this information until the moment of the elections.

CPR Surveys 30 9 T.JPG

Surveys 5.38 30 9 T.JPG

The Bets

Given the failure of the pollsters, at the beginning of the century the academic world began to see how the “wisdom of the masses”, collected by betting houses, provided better results than traditional pollsters, especially when the elections were very close. Below, the latest figures from the betting houses according to RCP.

Bets 30 9 T.JPG

Betting graf 30 9 T.JPG

The Models

In addition to surveys and bets, there are countless institutions that have developed their own models, collecting countless data and probabilistic algorithms, seeking to predict who will be the next North American president.

One of the best known is the one published by the people of “The Economist”, a medium that is difficult to define as related to Donald Trump (they attribute yesterday’s unusual movement to the incorporation of the results of 65 new surveys).

The Economist.JPG

Graf Economist.JPG

What happened during the day

Since this morning’s comment, enthusiasm among bettors for Donald Trump has dropped a little, causing his chance of winning to be reduced to 63.6% (it had been at 64% but 24 hours ago it was 62.8%) while Harris suffered an effect similar, although less significant, falling to 35% (from 35.1% and 36% a day ago).

On the polling side, according to the RCP people the numbers we had seen before did not change (48.4% to 48%; this is in both cases 0.1% less than the previous day), while the 5.38 people maintained their figure previous for the Republican and marginally reduced that of the Democrat (48% and from 46.7% to 48%), both losing one tenth in the last 24 hours.

Source: Ambito

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