Several economists and financial analysts are surprised. They consider that posed some risks that he could have the economic plan in the second semester but that, for sure, things are better than projected: The Government managed to lower inflation to less than 3% monthlykept the crawling peg at 2% (and plans to reduce it), achieved successful money laundering and continues to accumulate reserves.
In this framework, some of them are encouraged to reveal what forecasts they have for next year. Thus, it is the case of the experts of Criteria who, during a breakfast with journalists, gave their forecasts for 2025: Inflation will be 23%, there will be stocks until post-election (it will be relaxed along the way), the devaluation would go to 20% annually, economic growth will be 5% and there will be liability management to extend maturities to 2025/2026.
In this regard, Gabriel VidalDirector of PR.II. of Criteriaexplained that for the Government the best scenario is “get to the elections with the exchange rate and with low inflation,” since exchange restrictions do not inhibit you from buying dollars and accumulating reserves. Despite this, he warned that the November CPI will be higher than the October one, which could make it difficult to lower the crawling peg to 1%. Although he considered that October inflation was 0.7% if the monthly devaluation is discounted, which he sees as “a good sign.”
As for next year, The REM expectations for 2025 show that they coincide with those raised by Criteria. For this private BCRA report, next year will begin with an inflation of 3%, which would progressively decrease to 2.6% in April. In fact, an interannual inflation rate of 31.4% is estimated, substantially lower than that currently recorded. although still above that projected in the 2025 Budget by the Government (18.3%).
Also the consultant Econviews released its economic projections. For her, the Interannual inflation for December 2025 will be 39% and for January 2026, 37.3%. Thus, in the monthly measurement they consider a peak in February of 5.5% and a gradual decreasing process until December, which will be 1.7%. They consider in their base scenario, an exchange rate of $1,540 as of December next year, like the CCL, and an interest rate of 25% TNA.
Laundering and placement of ONs: the dollars that reassured the Government
With the extension of the deadline for entering money laundering, in October private sector dollar deposits rose, especially in the second fortnight. End to end, they increased US$3,170 million and closed the month at US$34,578 million. “In nominal terms, it is the highest value in the series, but if we adjust it for US inflation it is still below the maximums recorded in the Macri era,” they explained from Econviews.
“Laundering generated a stock of net deposits of US$15 billion. “50% is taken from reserve requirements in the BCRA, and another 50% is available in the private sector to be translated into loans, and this will lead to a greater accumulation of reserves.”explained Gabriel Vidal. In this way, companies borrow in dollars, but by needing pesos, they help to ensure that the monetary entity increases its coffers.
Another source of entry of fresh dollars It is the enormous placement of private debt that happened during 2024. The total volume of ONs issued reaches US$7.5 billionaccording to consulting firms, a figure that has not been seen since 2017. Only in October, US$2.5 billion were placedmore than in all of 2023. This instrument became the favorite of investors looking for reasonable returns with low risk.
All in all, the Central Bank bought US$245 million in the exchange market last Wednesday, the highest daily amount since mid-May. So, There have already been 32 consecutive rounds where it is a net buyer (excluding two days in which it ended with a neutral balance due to it being a holiday in the US) and in November it has already acquired more than US$1,000 million. For private consultants, The liquidation of agriculture had a daily average of US$120 milliongiven the prospects that there will not be a devaluation and, in turn, importers are postponing payments while waiting for the elimination of the PAIS Tax at the end of the year.
Good prospects for 2025, but challenges for 2026
From Invest in the Stock Market (IEB) They described the current situation that the Government finds itself in regarding monetary policy: the convergence between inflation and the “crawling peg” is closer, a necessary condition for exiting the stocksin addition to the elimination of the fiscal deficit and the monetary surplus, this situation occurring when the monetary base converges to the broad monetary base (hardly affordable in the short term).
If the Government manages to continue the disinflation process, maintains the reduction of country risk, the accumulation of reserves, and kicks off some debt maturities, for Criteria specialists, There is a very good omen for 2025. However, by 2026 there are some global conditions that create challenges: duty that Donald Trump proposes for the exportsa dollar global more strengthened, Brazil with a fiscal deficit wide and a real devaluinga aversion to emerging markets and doubts regarding the prices of the commodities. “Argentina is going to be even more expensive in dollars”they warned.
Source: Ambito
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