End of the COUNTRY Tax: they calculate a 20% cheaper card dollar for consumption at the end of December

In recent times, the Government has made two decisions with an impact on purchases abroad: the extension of the purchase limit via Postal Service Providers (PSP) and Courier to u$s3000, which occurs in the same month as the COUNTRY tax will end. According to sources from the Customs Collection and Control Agency (ARCA), depending on the time of collection of the summary or settlement of the card, users will be able to pay their consumption abroad. with a dollar card around $1,300, which would imply a reduction of around 20% compared to current values.

At the end of November, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, clarified in the media that the tourist dollar/card, the one that results from the official contribution plus a 60% recharge between the PAIS Tax and the receipts of Profits and Personal Assetswas going to go down after December 22.

The date responds to the elimination of the PAIS Tax for having completed its fifth fiscal period, according to Law 27,541. The dollar card, or tourist, currently stands at $1,666.77. The contribution will be nominally reduced after the corresponding period.

Card dollar: how much will it cost to make purchases abroad

“The PAIS Tax law establishes that the collection of transactions canceled with credit cards corresponds to the moment of collection of summary or settlement of the cardwhich will depend on the settlement date. At the same time, the perceptions of Profits and Assets are tied to the PAIS Tax,” responded from the organization commanded by Florence Misrahi.

This means that, after December 22, the consumer will pay for their purchases at a dollar at a lower nominal rate than the current one.

This is why in November Caputo was asked if the tourist dollar would maintain a similar value, based on a possible increase in perceptions that compensates the loss due to the PAIS Tax. The possibility was revealed in voiceover by government officials.

“The tourist dollar is going to go down. Most people pay the PAIS Tax cancellation with dollars, and not with pesos. They are not going to empty the Central Bank that’s why. And the dollar card is going to follow something higher than the official“, commented the head of the Treasury Palace at the time.

Card dollar: economists warn of risks

For Federico Machadoeconomist OPEN observatory“it must be taken into account that economic agents are not perfectly rationalas economic theory assumes.” That is to say: many continue to pay for consumption in dollars with pesoseven though it is cheaper to do it with dollars.

In turn, the Central Bank published in the latest report of Exchange Market that approximately half of the tourism account expenses are made with “card dollars”, even though paying with MEP dollars it is 35% cheaper.

“This is due, for example, to the fact that many have automatic debit activated and banks by default discount the amount in pesos, which includes taxes. To avoid it, the ‘stop debit’ must be requested and pay manually, calculating the amount in pesos without taxes and funding the account in dollars,” the economist clarifies.

In that sense, he highlights that ““the incentive to carry out this procedure is reduced” because the gap between the MEP dollar ($1069.75) and the card dollar will decrease.

Furthermore, it warns that an upward correction of the financial dollar, which has been falling practically uninterrupted for five months, could deepen this dynamic.

“Logically, if with a savings of 35% half of the population continues to pay with dollar cards, lower savings will imply greater demand for it, stressing the BCRA’s reserves,” concludes Machado.

The loss of dollars from tourism increases

According to a preview of the report written by the consulting firm Development Research Foundation (FIDE), the elimination of the PAIS Tax the appreciation of the import exchange rate will deepenbut especially that of the tourist exchange rate.

“Although the 30% collection of profits/personal assets on account will remain in force, implies a significant reduction that could deepen the tourism deficit”warns the document.

The red light turns on because the negative balance for this item averaged the US$580 million between May and September and jumped to US$691 million in October. Tourism expenditures reached US$941 millionbarely US$66 million lower than those of October 2023 (maximum since 2018).

At the same time, paying expenses with your own currency can also have a negative impact “if those dollars are deposited in banks, because they reduce reserve requirements in the BCRA”, explains the consultant.

“Expenses for trips abroad are usually financed with a stock of previous savings rather than with a flow of income,” but “the risk with the elimination of the PAIS Tax is that the portion paid with own dollars will decrease,” they point out from FIDE.

Calculations by Mercedes consulting firm Marcó del Ponto indicate that for January the tourist exchange rate would remain at $1,288 at today’s prices, still above parallel dollars, but with a relatively low gap and with a perception that can be taken at face value. other taxes account. The same thing that ARCA itself points out to this medium.

At the same time, they highlight that, if the receipt on account of Earnings/Personal Assets is deducted by 30%, the tourist exchange rate “It is equal to the official one and is located below the parallels”.

For reference, between September 2016 and April 2018, with an average exchange rate of $1,102 at today’s prices, “the tourism deficit averaged US$887 million per month.”

Specifically, the appreciation of the exchange rate, the elimination of the PAIS Tax and seasonal factors “will imply an increase in tourism expenditures in the coming months, and probably also a reduction of the portion paid with own dollarsincreasing the negative impact on reserves,” concludes the consultant.