These situations, while not entirely unpredictable, have the potential to destabilize key sectors and change current trends. Here are the main risks identified.
There are six low probability but high impact events, called “gray swans”which could generate significant turbulence in the financial markets during 2025.
These situations, according to an analysis by the Japanese bank Nomura, although not entirely unpredictable, have the potential to destabilize key sectors and modify current trends. Here are the main risks identified:
1. Nvidia stock market crash
- Risk: A delay in the launch of new chips for artificial intelligence or a decrease in technological investments could generate a strong correction in the stock market.
- Impact: Given Nvidia’s significant weight in the US market, with a stock market value of $3.4 trillion, its fall could drag down other technology companies and the general index.
2. Abrupt end of the carry trade in Japan
- Risk: If Japan decides to raise its interest rates, the appeal of the carry trade (borrowing in yen at low rates to invest in higher-yielding markets) could abruptly disappear.
- Impact: This would cause a massive withdrawal of international investments and a strong risk aversion in global markets.
3. US debt at 6%
- Risk: A rise in 10-year Treasury yields, driven by expansionary fiscal policies under Donald Trump, could push debt costs to unsustainable levels.
- Impact: This would negatively affect both the bond and stock markets, increasing the risk of financial instability.
4. Stoppage of consumption in the United States
- Risk: A slowdown in consumer spending, which is the main driver of the US economy, could halt economic growth.
- Impact: This would have direct implications for companies dependent on domestic consumption, affecting investor confidence and market performance.
5. Geopolitical escalation
- Risk: The intensification of global conflicts, such as those in Ukraine and the Middle East, or the emergence of new clashes, could destabilize markets and disrupt global supply chains.
- Impact: Volatility in the prices of oil, metals and other critical raw materials would increase.
6. Failure in Chinese stimuli
- Risk: If stimulus measures implemented by China’s government fail to revive the economy, a prolonged slowdown could occur in the world’s second-largest economy.
- Impact: Companies with significant exposure to China and raw materials markets would be hardest hit.
Coverage and strategies to face risks
According to Nomura, these events suggest caution when investing in stock markets. However, the current level of valuations shows that markets are not seriously considering the likelihood of these gray swans materializing. Recommended strategies include:
- Reduce positions in stocks in sectors with high risk exposure (technology and consumer).
- Diversify investments towards safer assets such as gold or high-quality bonds.
- Monitor political and economic developments in the mentioned key regions.
Although gray swans are not certain to materialize, they represent important warnings for investors and policymakers. Being prepared for high-impact scenarios will be key in a 2025 that promises to be volatile and full of challenges.
Source: Ambito
I am Pierce Boyd, a driven and ambitious professional working in the news industry. I have been writing for 24 Hours Worlds for over five years, specializing in sports section coverage. During my tenure at the publication, I have built an impressive portfolio of articles that has earned me a reputation as an experienced journalist and content creator.
