Markets 2025: the key events for investors to follow

The national public sector would end the year with a financial fiscal surplus of 0.3% of GDP, in good romance an impressive surplus goal was achieved, but there is nothing left over for the year 2025. This implies that we will have to work with a chainsaw to lower spending, and hope that the economic rebound will provide more income fiscal measures to achieve a comfortable surplus, which makes it possible to lower export duties that in 2024 amounted to a collection of $6,030 million, and tax on bank debits and credits that during the year they totaled $9,417 million.

The first represented 4.6%, and the second 7.2% of the collection, between them 11.8% of the total collection. With these numbers It is clear that the tax reduction will surely come in the fourth quarter of the yearand under no circumstances will it be total, partial withdrawals will be sought to satisfy the needs of all actors in society. In December we began to observe that many taxes grew in collection above inflation, as is the case of Consumption VAT, profits and check tax.

This behavior of the executive branch when managing public accounts assures us that we will not have a deficit, there will be no issuance of money, that there will be a lack of pesos, there will be excess dollars, inflation, interest rate and devaluation rate will continue to decline. The three major events of 2025 will be the agreement with the IMF, the elimination of the stocks and the free trade agreement with the United States. It does not seem that these events could materialize until the months of March or April in the case of the agreement with the IMF, and the bilateral agreement with the United States would remain in the best scenario for the second half of 2025.

Lifting the stocks implies that the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic has enough dollars to meet the demand of individualsdividends from companies that want to migrate from the country are estimated at US$ 6,000 million, so gross reserves should be at least around US$ 50,000 million, and have positive net reserves. Difficult, but not impossible. In the meantime, the markets will give the verdict on how these shares evolve, but not before considering that the rise observed in recent months has been very important, and we do not rule out taking profits. Argentine bonds today show a yield of around 10% annually, which made it possible to lower the country risk to the area of ​​600 points.

Under the government of Mauricio Macri the country risk was at 350 points, they had no fiscal surplus and no stocks, the latter being the big difference with the current government. The sovereign dollar bonds will pay amortization and income on January 9, with which on January 7 they will cut the coupon on the stock market, the AL and GD 2029 and 2030 series will pay amortization and income, while the rest will only pay income. This will modify the prices of the titles on the board.

We believe that sovereign bonds are an excellent investment, but they have accumulated a large rise, so a decrease in prices seems healthy, and in this way they would prepare for an upward rally when we are closer to an agreement with the IMF. In terms of stocks, we are experiencing historical highs for many papers, with an international market that is pulling downwards, without clear definitions in the United States, devaluation of the Brazilian real plus the yuan in China, and business valuations that seem high in the market. current economic context.

There is a lot of talk that the 2025 market will be Brazil, I do not share this opinion. Brazil’s shares fell too much, but the change of government would take place in 2027, we have Lula for a while, this implies populism and something else. In Argentina, everything suggests that the ruling party has a chance of winning the mid-term elections, a ratification of the course and a lifting of the stocks could lead us to the country risk that we had between 2016 and 2018, the actions should climb new highs , and the inflow of capital would flatten the dollar

. – Patience is the right word, a lot was gained in the year 2024, we must unsaddle until the year 2025 becomes clear.

. – The key dates are January 20, which is the inauguration of Donald Trump, and January 29, the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year. After these events, we are left with the negotiations with the IMF, and the prospects for the 2024/25 harvest that will provide dollars from the end of March onwards.

. – The arrival of the companies’ results for the fourth quarter of 2024 will begin in February, another incentive to find reasons for an increase in the local market.

. – In conclusion, January is a month to unsaddle until it clears, make friends with liquiditystocks and bonds should adjust downward, and if you want to buy, don’t hurry, the market will give you the opportunity you are looking for.