From the first business day of February “Crawling Peg ” of the official dollar will go from 2% to 1%, in order to specify an anchor for the inflation and that this continues in The deceleration process. Besides, The Central Bank (BCRA) defined on the previous day validate A decrease in the monetary policy ratethat from the end of January, it will fall at 29% TNAto accompany The convergence of the variables.
Taking into account the status state, experts begins to predict What will happen in February. “I initially think that what the court marks today is inflation. The decreasing trend of this brand the court at the future interest rate and that it remains positive and attractive in real terms “he said to the scope, The economist Federico Glustein.
In this context, for this expert the decline of the “crawling peg” to 1% can delimit inflationary activity in terms of imported goodsby reducing and generating “An impact on the rate towards Low” but also “The rise in inflation services puts this descent already this march”. In turn, Glustein said: “If we count that the dollar is still in CCL in terms of the month and the lower demand for cash in February could Let these variables in the short term. “
The economist Joel Lupieri He believes that The Central Bank should not follow a rates bassist pathand as for the causes he said that they have to be “prudent” mainly because They do not have all the reserves today to defend a potential exchange rate in the event that this happenssituation that could be realized if there was a disarmament of fixed deadlines.
“With respect to Inflation also obviously there is a bearish pathbut I think that to finally be able to say that inflation is finished or dead, they have to Continue solidifying a very restrictive financial structure with a high, real interest rate and a zero -based broadcast. So, in the short term I think we are status quo where Inflation will continue to go down, but the interest rate and the dollar will be quite still. “
In turn, Andrés Reschini of F2 Financial solutionshe contributed: “I think that as has happened since the dollar jumped to $ 800, Crawl is going to travel below the rate and inflation and will continue to be used as a nominal anchor “.
In this regard, he recalled that “although inflation has decelerated strongly since the level of December 2023, it still remains at a high level bought with the other countries of the region with relatively normal economies. That is why we have been anticipating the rate cut that took place“
Dollar, inflation and rate: how did they go in January
The main ones Economic consultants They released the Inflation estimates for Januarywaiting for the data of the INDEC that will publish it on Thursday, February 13. In general, The projections are between 2% and 2.5%below 2.7% in December. It should be noted that this would be The first month in two years in which year -on -year inflation would return to both digits.
The official dollar, meanwhile, continued in the “Crawling Peg” to 2%, while the Blue dollar to end in the current value that it has on this day, which is $ 1,225, would have suffered in the month a decrease of only 0.4% or $ 5, while financial dollars also followed this same trend: the MEP dollarto finish in $ 1,177 would have suffered a decrease of 0.8% or $ 9.93, while The CCL dollar to close the month at $ 1,162 would have fallen 0.7% U $ 8.4.
Finally, it must be noted that the Directory of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) It arranged to reduce The monetary policy rate from 32% to 29% of TNA. The interest rate of active passes was also reduced from 36% to 33%. These rates will govern as of Friday, January 31. “The directory’s decision is based on the consolidation observed in the expectations of low inflation,” they said from the entity.
Source: Ambito

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