Royal turn: almost 10% were appreciated against the dollar in a month and a half, should it be vacationed in Brazil?

He Brazilian real He devalued 27.35% in 2024 and suffered his worse devaluation from pandemic (-29.3%) with a more marked depreciation in the last two months of last year. As we contradate, the Argentine weight It was very strong in that same period. With which, Brazil became cheaper in dollars and Argentine tourists fled to the neighboring country. However, since its minimum in mid -December, the currency of the South American giant is almost 10% against the dollar.

The Brazilian currency came to touch the 6.30 per dollar on December 18. From that level, he climbed near the 8% against the dollar After closing this Wednesday in 5,7986. Thus, it returned to values ​​of the end of November. “Like this and everything, it is a high level for the recent history of Brazil. A year ago I was in 4.98”he pointed to Scope The economist of the PXQ consultant, Pedro Martínez Gerber.

Why can the Brazilian real against the dollar appreciate?

The Brazilian currency began 2025 with a 6.15 price per dollar And it has risen 5.7% in the first month of the year. This appreciation of the currency was multicausal, according to this media the economist Federico Glusteinsince it occurs after the Raise of the monetary policy rateadded to the “favorable” international scenario, which makes emerging markets more attractive and greater investor confidence in the new president of Central Bank (BCB), Gabriel Galipolo.

In 2024, the devaluation accelerated to November and December before the Investor doubts about the ability of the government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to reduce the already worrying levels of fiscal deficit and public debt.

“The SERIC RATE, that against all prognosis a point rose, from 12.2% to 13.2%, in particular, thinking that the inflation closed in 5.5% by 2024, but with an upward inertia, “said the specialist. To this, it was added that the Federal Reserve He maintained his rates, which makes Brazil a possible investment market, as well as confidence in Galipolo, who promised to have lower inflation objectives and the independence of the entity.

“They also influenced the profits greater than those expected by companies in 2024, giving a boost to the Brazilian economy. In addition, there is an improvement in the terms of commercial exchange, with export prices that exceed 18% to importsdespite the depreciation of the end of 2024, which, despite the not so positive perspective in the agricultural sector, could have a good growth profile by 2025, “Glustein analyzed.

How does the real appreciation impact on the Argentine weight?

Real’s appreciation gives a boost to the Argentine weight. It is that, given the backwardness of the Argentine currency, that the Real is strengthened turns out to be a good sign, since it avoids a greater multilateral delay compared to the main regional partner, explains the economist.

Also, this Barely more expensive the broadcasive tourism, which is record and touches values ​​of 2018, which is a bit less attractive. This could generate a “leave in spending,” says Glustein, with some optimism.

He Tourist boom abroad generated a Sangria of US $ 761 million Until January 22according to data from the stock loan stock by credit card, which reported The Central Bank. That amount implies a Growth of 185% compared to the average of January 2024 (US $ 267 million) And it’s about higher value since February 9, 2018 (US $ S772 million). He also touched the record of US $ 838 million marked on February 2 of that same year, in another context of strong exchange assessment and weeks before the run that began the beginning of the Mauricio Macri government crisis.

Tourism: Brazil continues to be cheaper, despite the appreciation of the real

It is usually heard that The devaluation in Brazil does not have a transfer at prices as it happens in Argentina. Although this does not affect the life value of Brazilians, there is an impact on the price paid by Argentines, since the conversion is made from dollars to Real.

“If a caipirinha leaves 30 reais and the currency quotes at 6.2 will come out 4.84 dollars. If the real one can appreciate and quote at 5.79, as now, that same caipirinha comes out 5.18 dollars,” Martínez Gerber explained, who said “This type of exchange is still cheaper Brazil than Argentina for the traditional expenses of a tourist”.

It should be noted that, if the Real continues to look forward, Argentine tourism to Brazil will be less attractive, added that in the face of other national destinations there are costs, such as aerial, which are relatively more expensive.