He National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) The inflation data corresponding to January will announce this Thursday, which is expected to register a new monthly decrease. According to the organism calendar, the evolution of the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be informed at 16 this Thursday.
On Tuesday, the Minister of Economy, Luis CaputoHe anticipated that January inflation would be 2.3%, and stressed that if that figure is confirmed this week, it will be “the lowest” of its management.
“It is around what the market predicted, which based on expectations is in the order of 2.3%, and I believe that it should come around that, which will be the most under our” , celebrated the national official on the index that will disseminate INDEC.
The government expects inflation Fall quickly below 2%. Last week, the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, said in an interview that there is a possibility that the February price index is lower than that percentage, which would imply a faster deceleration expected by the market.
“Hopefully in February inflation begins with 1. The disinflation process will continue, the macroeconomic order will remain. It is an inevitable path and we hope it will continue to surprise,” Caputo said.
For its part, last Thursday the BCRA announced the result of the Market expectations survey (REM), in which consultants, local and international research centers and financial entities in Argentina They estimated a monthly inflation of 2.3% for January (-0.2 pp with respect to the previous REM).
What number do economic consultants expect
At the same time, consultants who carry out a weekly prices monitoring detected in January, In most cases, a slowdown in the monthly increase rhythm, which anticipates an CPI of less than 2.7% recorded in December.
For example, according to ANALYTICSIn the last week of January, food and drink prices in Greater Buenos Aires increased 0.4%. “In this way, the average of the last four weeks is 1.7%. For the general price level, we project a monthly increase of 2.3% in January,” said the consultant.
Among the categories that rose the most in the last month, fish and shellfish (3.4%), fruits (3.1%) and oils, fats and butter (2.5%) stood out. In contrast, the price of vegetables recorded a slight fall of 0.1%.
Orlando J. Ferreres It measured 2.4%monthly, with food and drinks (+4.1%) and housing (+2.9%) as the largest increases. Core inflation was 1.7%, while seasonal goods and services rose 6.8%.
C&T Economic Advisors It relieved 2% for Greater Buenos Aires, the lowest level in 53 months. He highlighted increases in tourism (+6.2%) and fruits stability, with casualties in vegetables, dairy and eggs. The meat went from an increase of 8% in December to 2.3% in January.
Freedom and progress It also reported a monthly 2%, which would carry interannual inflation to 84.3%, lowering the three digits for the first time in two years.
LCG measured a weekly inflation of 0.1% In the last week of January and a monthly average of 2%, with 75% of products without price variations, reflecting greater stability.
The inflation of workers
Meanwhile, The Workers Statistics Institute (IET) He revealed that the inflation of the month of January closed by 2.5% and affected more income households.
The Executive Director of the Center for Concertación and Development (CCD) and former Minister of EducationNicolás TrottaHe said that methodological differences are fundamental for the reality of the purchasing power of workers.
“There is more and more coincidence between analysts that there is a significant methodological underestimation in the measurement of INDEC (National Institute of Statistics and Census) due to the very low weighting of the prices of public services in the index, which does not happen on the CPI (consumer price index) calculated by the CABA government. “
The inflation of the City of Buenos Aires was 3.1% in January, with a decrease compared to 3.3% in December. The index in the city records an annual inflation of 100.6% in the last twelve months, with a reduction of 36.7 percentage points in relation to the previous year.
Source: Ambito
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