IPC: Good January, but there is already drag for February

What is said at the tables

In a financial “Conference Call” complaints were heard, after the last tender, of the delay in the alignment of the fees with that of monetary policy. It occurs, according to an important local manager, that market prices may not be anticipating an inflation in February aligned or even greater than January, as reflected in high frequency inflation data. If so, the interest rate would take something more to advance in the decrease process, and then, the treasury of companies and banks should shorten “Duration” via the combination of positions in “Money Market” and Lecaps, for example.

On the instability of the market, they blame the comings and turns, and said and contradicos on the negotiation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), particularly, in relation to the level of the exchange rate and the possibilities of fresh disbursements. Therefore, he did not stop the attention of the operators, the low interest in the tender of the treasure, the option “Dollar Linked”, showing the little appetite for taking that coverage. Those who look at the country risk, That is, the so -called “hard dollar” bond curve interprets that investors are waiting for some argument that gives rise to an improvement of the Argentine risk premium, and all the good that was expected or discounted is in prices, which suffered a certain GANNENCY TAKE.

When imagining that argument or “driver” that justifies a rise in dollar bonds, one could be the exit of the stocks, the agreement with the IMF or a overwhelming electoral result in the next legislative. Meanwhile, from the managing bunkers they point out that, by the hand of the fiscal surplus and the fulfillment of the commitments with the bonds and organizations, one or the other outside adventurer can be tempted to enter again after the last falls.

In relation to the electoral issue, a hinge of 2025, and the libertarian mandate, began, with more impetus, the return of the face -to -face and virtual meetings between consultants, bankers and investors. One of the most commented, among the tables, was that of Ecogo, where economists (Dal Poggetto and Menescaldi) looked explained why the current scheme (economic plan) does not accumulate reserves -an expensive topic to the feelings of the technicians of the technicians of the FMI-, since the currencies that the BCRA buys through one window go quickly for another.

But speaking of the electoral panorama, a virtual meeting presented a survey that reflected very well why the next legislative will be a plebiscite of “supporting or not” the Milei government. Although today is very premature, but the thermal sensation shows that freedom progresses and the opposition of union by the homeland retain a third of intention to vote each, while the pro, or what remains of Cambiemos, does not reach 10 %. As is already talking about, the step ends up being key to the planning of positions for the rest of the year, so it is speculated that the governors commune with the official initiative to suspend them because they fear for that purpose unique ballot nationwide.

In a stock market, in a house in the bass of San Isidro, a group of young “traders” local commented, after seeing the latest foreign exchange data, who had been the international oil company that accessed the Mulc to pay a direct foreign investment linked to The purchase of a competitor. Much commented on the slightest “rollover” of the last tender that, from September is less than 100%, despite offering letters to 28 days and validating a flat yield curve up to 3 months.

In turn, the exchange of “S31M5” for “S10N5” had an acceptance much less than 20% of the “T2X5” exchange of January 29 and the adhesion was similar in absolute terms to the issuance of the new LECAP “S28N5” . The organizer of the meeting stressed that, since the BCRA rate cut at the end of January, the yields of the LECAP and the Boncap rose along the curve and, after the sharp fall on January 31 and the first days of February , the “overnight” rates turned strongly in the last week -the 1 -day bond operated above the Lefi rate, despite the fact that Lefi’s stock in private banks remained above $ 4 billion.

What is the countercara of this?, That the rates in short -term pesos could fall into the next wheels with the injection of $ 1.4 billion to the system, so they agreed that the debt market must be monitored in pesos for pesos for See if relief is transitory, as was after the last auction, or more durable. When the Scottish Malm and Blend arrived, the last move of Don Tapia (Delta) was commented Latin as the largest non -banking “player” of funds at the local level. There was also talk of the IMF, and as the Government put “stock” to negotiations so the tendency to appreciation will continue.

But when talking about opportunities, it seems that the “Bullish” optimism follows with Argentine banks by the hand of the combo of positive real rates and the impressive expansion of the credit to the private sector in real terms, which strengthen the expected profitability of the sector . An operator recalled that a year ago the banks allocated 45% of their assets to finance the Treasury and the BCRA, leaving only 13% for the private sector, and today, these numbers are 37% to the State and 29% to the Private sector.

In another reserved meeting, with greater international presence, there was talk of the feeling of investors who reacted defensive to Trump’s iconoclastic and spontaneous policy, bringing the price of gold to a new record. They explained that the uncertainty generated by the series of proposals, threats and executive orders of the US president also molded his appetite for mutual funds and ETFs, being those that offer exposure to classes of alternative assets, effective and bonds the preferred options.

According to private data, last week, global surveys show that Variable Income Fund Social (SRI) or environmental, social and governance (ESG) increased to maximum of 19 and 42 weeks, respectively. But bond and money market funds attracted a combined total of US $ S63.3 billion, cryptocurrency funds, bank loans and high -performance bonds attracted more than US $ 2,000 million and physical gold funds extended their Longest tickets since October.

They also stressed that, within the trends captured by the flow of monitored funds, China’s shares fund Mexico rose to a maximum of 34 weeks, was the first collective output of 2025 of the Variable Income Funds of developed markets while the European Variable Income Funds registered its 18th consecutive exit, and the flows towards the funds of Japanese shares recounted until reach a maximum of 14 weeks. While emerging market bond funds registered consecutive weekly tickets for the first time since mid -October and Japan money funds registered their highest departure in more than 22 months.

There was also exchange of figurines: according to Goldman, Trump’s tariff order on steel imports could be used by betting on a handful of national metallurgical actions such as Commercial Metals, Cleveland-Cliffs, and Nucor. On the region, the Argentine case continues to be pondering, the main Wall Street managers continue to over-adnder to Brazil due to the lack of alternatives in Latin America but they are still defensive at the sector level, in Mexico they continue to bet despite the political uncertainty , since the valuations are very discounted, but highlighting that Argentina could have the largest number of catalysts in the region: disinflation, potential agreement with the IMF and reduction of regulatory risks. He told an economist linked to a Wall Street bank that one of the greats has Argentina with the greatest over-government in its portfolio in Latin America, through banks and energy. That Wall Street giant speaks of a possible agreement with the IMF before April 25, which could be key to lifting capital controls. So and everything is difficult to see the country again within the emerging club of MSCI. The other country in which they bet is Chile, via Santander and then Colombia.