Debt: Luis Caputo approved a slight rate increase and placed $6.99 billion, just enough to renew maturities

In the first tender for debt in pesos September, the Ministry of Economy placed $6.99 billion this Wednesday. Thus, he got just enough to refinance the large maturities this week. To achieve this, the team of Luis Caputo had to approve a slight rate increase compared to what it paid at the previous auction and also the returns on the secondary market.

The Finance Secretariat, which heads Pablo Quirnohad put nine titles on the table: six fixed-rate capitalization letters (LECAP) and three inflation-linked bonds (BONCER)In the tender, it received 4,756 offers for a total amount of $7.24 billion, of which it awarded $6.99 billion.

It was a challenging tender since $6.97 trillion is due this week, concentrated in a LECAP that received the flow from banks during the debt migration strategy from the Central Bank to the Treasury. In fact, September is the month with the highest load of maturities of the year, with around $14 billion.

However, the Treasury was able to renew all weekly payments, although practically closed without extra financing. This is something that the bank has tried to do throughout the year, either to increase the liquidity cushion that the Treasury has deposited in the BCRA or to buy dollars with a view to guaranteeing creditors the next payment of interest on the external debt in January.

Debt: details of the tender

Just over half of the amount placed was concentrated in the three shortest LECAPs. They were $2.18 trillion as of December 2024, $1.25 trillion as of February 2025, and $608,909 million as of March, in the only three instruments to which Finance had set a maximum amount to prevent banks from concentrating even more on short-term bills.

In addition, the Ministry of the Economy placed $995,916 million in a LECAP in April, $717,552 million in one in May and $828,692 million in one in September 2025.

Among the inflation-linked bonds, the most in demand was the BONCER as of March 2025. In that instrument, it awarded $235,082 million. Finally, it placed $153,370 million in a BONCER as of March 2026 and $23,497 million as of March 2027.

Tender with rate increase

One of the data that was noticed in the City was that, in order to guarantee the refinancing of the maturities, Caputo had to validate somewhat higher performances for investors. In the case of the LECAP, it paid 3.75% effective monthly rate (TEM) in December; 3.9% in February, March and April; and 3.95% in May and September. Meanwhile, the BONCER cut real rates of 5.6% in 2025, 8.7% in 2026 and 10.5% in 2027.

“The Treasury paid a little more in rates than in the previous tender, but not in such dissonance with the closure of the secondary market,” said the economist. Salvador Vitellihead of research at Romano Group. Although he clarified that The long end of the LECAP curve “suffered post-inflation data” (4.2% in August, which was higher than expected) and stated that, If it were not for that, “the difference between the secondary market and the auction would have been even greater.”

In the previous auction, the Ministry of the Economy had paid, for example, 3.78% TEM for a LECAP in February and 3.88% TEM for a bill in August 2025.

“The Treasury took 96% of the bids offered, having to pay a premium in the case of the LECAP. Even so, it was only enough to cover Friday’s maturities,” the firm analyzed. Bridge after the tender.

Luis Caputo, debt, credit and tighter refinancing

Facing the large September maturities of some $14 trillion in total, Caputo himself had opened the umbrella this Tuesday at night in the streaming of the Treasury Palace on a possible tighter roll overThere, he said that it was “likely that, in a refinancing, the banks will not do the full refinancing,” although He linked this possibility to a recovery in demand for money and credit..

In this regard, he stated that it was with the aim of supplying this need for remonetization that they decided to maintain a large Liquidity buffer deposited at zero rate in the account that the Treasury has in the BCRAAs of last Friday, these deposits amounted to $17.53 billionof which $16.78 billion were in pesos. “If there is no full refinancing, we have reserves in pesos at the Central Bank so that banks can have them and apply them to credit,” he insisted.

In this regard, Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI) highlighted that, with the liquidity deposited in the BCRA and in the Banco Nación, the Government could face 77% of the maturities of the next three months (including September) even in a hypothetical and unlikely case that total access to the local market was lost. The improbability of this scenario, according to many analysts, lies in the Continuation of the currency controls, which limit the avenues for dollarization of portfolios. A factor that, in the opposite direction, makes it difficult to refinance external debt in the face of the mountain of foreign currency maturities next year, as Domingo Cavallo and other economists have suggested.

“As demand and, above all, the supply of credit recover, Banks are expected to reduce their exposure to the Treasury, which is the highest in many yearsto expand its lending to the private sector, which is welcome,” Puente’s strategy team noted. Although they noted: “Either way, A crowding out effect resulting in higher rates cannot be ruled out when the Treasury competes for this liquidity with the private sector.“.

For the remainder of the year, debt maturities in pesos amount to just over $25 billionThe next stop will be the bidding process scheduled for September 26, in which it will face commitments for around $7 billion.