Specifically, according to sector projections based on official records of shipments abroad, for the 2022/23 campaign, a very low export volume is expected compared to the last business cycles, anticipating exports for 8.7 million tons between March and June which corresponds mainly to early production, far behind the 15 million tons exported in the same period of the 2021/2 cyclethus showing a year-on-year drop of no less than 40%.
On the other hand, the export peak could be in July with a volume of 4.6 million tons, slightly below the peak reached in said month the previous year with 5 million tons. That is, 2022/23 maize exports would be lower and start very slowly overall. The volume to be exported in the new campaign would be 27.5 million tons, a minimum since the drought registered in the 2017/18 cycle.
In turn, regarding the value of corn exports, for the entire 2022/23 cycle, the Rosario Stock Exchange projects a total of US$7,553 million, with an estimated decrease of US$1,655 million compared to the previous campaign. For its part, regarding the FOB value of early corn exports between March and June, the estimate stands at US$2,497 million compared to the US$3,719 million reached for the same period in 2022. In this way , a fall of 32.8% is estimated. Meanwhile, partial compensation for export prices is expected, although it would not be enough to reach the value exported the previous year.
Looking ahead, the concern in the field is the real productive impact on the crops of the early frosts that fell this weekend in the core zone. The entry of a transient polar wave generated a drastic drop in temperatures and from then on soybeans and corn suffered the consequences. For this reason, it is expected that the field surveys carried out in the coming days can provide a more accurate picture of the state of the crops and from there a possible new cut in the harvest estimate is expected. In any case, the current campaign is presented as the driest in the last 60 years and foreign exchange income for the first two months would be the lowest since the 2006/2007 agricultural campaign. A year that started more than complex for the countryside and the economy.