The impact of the drought
The drought continues without giving respite to agricultural production and the Argentine economy. In addition to the large losses forecast for soybeans, of around 10 million tons compared to last year, it is expected that there will also be a sharp decline in the corn crop and more strongly in the early cereal, that is, the one that is implanted first and begins to be exported from March and April. In this context, the projection is that the dollar drought will continue for the next two months as well.
Specifically, according to sector projections based on official records of shipments abroad, for the 2022/23 campaign, a very low export volume is expected compared to the last business cycles, anticipating exports for 8.7 million tons between March and June which corresponds mainly to early production, far behind the 15 million tons exported in the same period of the 2021/2 cyclethus showing a year-on-year drop of no less than 40%.
On the other hand, the export peak could be in July with a volume of 4.6 million tons, slightly below the peak reached in said month the previous year with 5 million tons. That is, 2022/23 maize exports would be lower and start very slowly overall. The volume to be exported in the new campaign would be 27.5 million tons, a minimum since the drought registered in the 2017/18 cycle.
In turn, regarding the value of corn exports, for the entire 2022/23 cycle, the Rosario Stock Exchange projects a total of US$7,553 million, with an estimated decrease of US$1,655 million compared to the previous campaign. For its part, regarding the FOB value of early corn exports between March and June, the estimate stands at US$2,497 million compared to the US$3,719 million reached for the same period in 2022. In this way , a fall of 32.8% is estimated. Meanwhile, partial compensation for export prices is expected, although it would not be enough to reach the value exported the previous year.