The second half of April was marked by volatility in the alternative dollars. A scenario that, according to different private consultancies, added pressure to the prices and raised projections of inflation for the month. In fact, they estimate a floor of 7%although some surveys place it at levels close to those of March (7.7%) and even close to 8%. Another aspect that stood out in the different surveys carried out by the consultants is the marked increase registered by food, which climbed above the general level again.
As explained by Santiago Manoukian, Head of Research at Ecolatina, the rise in alternative dollars can be seen reflected in the April price index: “We calculated the price increase of 6,000 durable goods in the last week and the inflation of these categories was, on average, 6%”.
“They were defensive raises. In another era, the transfer to prices would have been less, but with an increasingly robust exchange rate that limits access to the official exchange rate, and in this framework of uncertainty due to the impact of the drought and political uncertainty, the rates financial exchange rates have a greater role,” remarked the analyst, who explained that in this scenario they estimate a floor of 7% for inflation in April.
For its part, the CPI measured by the Fundación Freedom and Progress recorded an increase of 7.2% month in April (in March, the variation of this indicator was 7.3%). “Despite the slowdown compared to the data from the previous month, it must be taken into account that March is strongly conditioned by the seasonal factor, which sets a higher floor for said month and, consequently, in general a slowdown is evident in April, although this is not the case”, they explained from the firm.
“On the other hand, the inflationary dynamics of the last two weeks of April showed an upward trend, largely influenced by the currency run, causing strong increases in the price of non-regulated goods. The full impact of this phenomenon will be observed with greater intensity in May,” they added. The item “food and non-alcoholic beverages” rose 8%.
“The impact of the exchange rate run that we have experienced in recent weeks will be more noticeable in May. Although the Central Bank and Treasury rate hikes help to stabilize the situation in the very short term, they generate greater pressure on future monetary issue, setting a floor for inflation this year that will be around 120%”, analyzed Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist. of Liberty and Progress
Meanwhile, the price survey of the consultancy C&T recorded a rise in 7.6% in April (its indicator had risen 7% in March). “The month started with a sharp acceleration in food and beverage prices (especially vegetables) and was followed by a more general one in the last week of the month, coinciding with the trigger of alternative exchange rates, although clothing, electronic products and tourism stood out especially ”, they detailed from the firm. Food and beverages grew 9.5% according to this firm.
When analyzing the variation of food, the survey carried out by the LCG consultancy registered a rise of 9.5% from “end to end”. “The monthly average of products with increases is currently 31%. This means that the total basket adjusts on average every three weeks approximately, ”they detailed from the firm.
According to LCG, the vegetables went up 16% in the month; the meatsa 10.5%; bakery products, cereals and pasta, 7.8%; and dairy products and eggs, 7.5%.
In that scenario, from Analytics estimated that monthly inflation for April could be close to 8%as a result of the strong rise in alternative dollars, and they announced that it is difficult to foresee a “substantial drop” for May.
Source: Ambito
