In a joint statement between the BCRA and the Ministry of Economy, both organizations announced that 80% of MSMEs will be able to access the MULC to cancel all commercial debts abroad. This is thanks to the accumulation of international reserves – in January US$3,273 million were purchased and since December 13 US$6,135 million have been accumulated – and the high acceptance of the BOPREAL Series 1, which was awarded of VN US$5 billion.
For an important financial operator, who spoke in off with this means, the measure “It is a sign on the way to releasing the stocks“, which “could also lead to a devaluation.” Along the same lines, Daniel Marx, Executive Director of Quantum Finance, maintains that, in principle, it is a moderate step to “sort accounts”.
Emiliano Anselmi, chief economist at Portfolio Personal Inversiones (PPI), assumes that is not the case. The thing is that access to MULC for MSMEs is staggered in such a way that “it coincides with the seasonality of foreign exchange settlement, which increases as the thick harvest approaches”, with a seasonal peak in May. That is: the purchase of official dollars will be for up to US$50,000 between 02/10/24 and 03/09/24, US$150,000 between 03/10/24 and 04/09/24 and up to US$ s300,000 from 04/10/24 onwards.
That is why he does not observe an exchange rate jump in the short term, although he does maintain that the crawling peg at 2% may not go beyond February. At the moment, Matba Rofex discounts a slippage of 7.5% in March and 14% in April in future contracts. “The positions for February, March and April have been declining since Milei took office. In short, the market does not see a discrete jump in the immediate future,” concludes the specialist.
María Moyano Hidalgo, institutional sales trader of Adcap Grupo Financiero, the amounts payable by all corporate entities are “extremely low” in 2024, and very low for 2025 and 2026, which takes pressure off the Government when it comes to releasing payments and would not generate a “direct correlation between the exchange rate and the companies’ debt payments.” Although the December inflation data and the January projection, lower than initially expected, infer that the crawling peg of 2% “seems further away than expected”, the next CPI data, BCRA purchases and the signs shown by the Government on the ability to make the adjustment with the fiscal package of the omnibus law abroad, will be determinants of the market “with respect to a possible devaluation in the short term.”
Meanwhile, Alejandro BianchiCEO of Investment Advisor, highlights that the Cash Settlement exchange rate rose 27%, reaching $1,251 on this day, which deepened the gap between the official dollar and the parallel ones, which reached below 8%. For the specialist, there are factors that should take pressure off the exchange rate as the months go by: the accumulation of reserves, the arrival of the US$4.7 billion from the IMF, which have already been used according to confirmation from the BCRA, the elimination of the LELIQS, with their consequent transfer to Passive Passes, but “the inertial dynamics generated by these liabilities were curved due to their lower rate.”
According to Bianchi, this leads to the understanding that the devaluation could only come within “one or two months”, within the framework of the thick harvest. However, for the CEO, the gap was functional while the BOPREAL tenders took place, in order to achieve greater demand for the bond. “I doubt that there will be a devaluation because prestige or confidence of the monetary authority”; she concluded.