Crop estimates cut due to heat wave

Crop estimates cut due to heat wave

The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) this Wednesday cut its estimates for the soybean and corn crops 2023/24 a 49.5 million and 57 million tons, respectively, due to the impact of a heat wave recorded between the end of January and the beginning of the month.

Previously, the BCR had calculated the soybean harvest in 52 million tons and corn 59 million tons.

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“There are negative adjustments in corn, estimated to be 2 million tons less than in January, while the first production estimate for the oilseed is being made. The heat wave has had its impact on the yield potential of the coarse crop,” indicated the BCR.

In its Monthly National Estimates Report released this Wednesday, the BCR explained that the heat wave It excluded the possibility of a super soybean campaign, in addition to forcing a negative adjustment in corn.

Between 2010 and 2020, Argentina exceeded 50 million tons of soybean production on seven occasionshe recalled, and pointed out that “This 2023/24 cycle presented itself with the opportunity to exceed that level.”

By virtue of the condition of the crop, the first estimate points to a amount “below expected” In the first screenings, the entity lamented.

In that sense, he stated that Until mid-January, the water improvement in the soil profiles in a large part of the Argentine productive area led us to believe that it would comfortably exceed 50 million tons.

But Starting on January 17, a very long heat wave set in and the severe crisis that turned the scenario around, and the deterioration of crops led to a strong cut of 2.5 million tons, which was not greater thanks to the rains between February 7 and 14.

Refering to second-class soybeans, the situation remains very delicate: The heat stroke has left widespread damage in the Pampas region: there were drops in potential yields of the order of 40% to 60% and numerous areas lost that lead to an estimate of a non-harvesable area of ​​750 thousand hectares.

The February estimate also takes into account a adjustment in the national planting area of ​​100 thousand hectares.

With a surface planted 17.3 million hectares -8.3% more than last year- and a yields national average of 29.9 quintals per hectarethe BCR estimated the production at 49.5 million tons, 19.5 million more than the “unsuccessful” previous cycle (only 20 million).

The heat wave also impacted corn, warned the entity, which estimated a drop in production of 3.4%, compared to the January figure.

With a yield of 76.9 quintals per hectare at the national level, a 2023/224 corn production of 57 million tons, with a cut of two million compared to January.

As with soybeans, expectations as of January 17 were very different; The high production environment also suggested an excellent corn campaign, he indicated. In early corn, which represents 35% of the total planted, the heat stroke could leave losses of 10% to 15% compared to the expected yield in the most affected areas.

In the late ones there are high levels of damage, which can exceed 50% of the potential yield. and there is a great unknown regarding the result that can be achieved; while the late ones that were planted later were benefited by the rains of the second week of February.

However, he added, “It is very important that they receive new contributions in the following days to affirm the recovery and sustain the 2023/24 corn production potential.”

Source: Ambito

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