Without a honeymoon, what comes next? Investor trips continue. FOMO contagion. Carry or cocoa? Mobility on the bench. Twitter advisor. Osvaldo behind the mountains. The Prof gave a lecture. He went big. A boy behind bars.
They passed, almost without pain or glory, first 100 days of the libertarian government of the brothers Milei. The period that everyone calls the “Honeymoon”. Spirits, expectations and feelings more cracked than ever, between those who see everything good despite everything, and those who see everything bad. Still premature to draw balances. The truth is that the market began to consider after the honeymoon whether in reality now Does Milei have 100 more days? The bonanza of the markets validating, in a certain way, the measures implemented, but perhaps looking more towards what is to come, causes the trading desks to speculate that a drop in the country risk of about 300 basis points can still be expected in the next few years. 60 days. After the huge gains that March left, Today everyone is reconsidering whether to redouble their bets on carry trade. The million dollar question. Some local managers told clients that, perhaps, it could be a good time to take profits. But it happens that with April projected to be positive in terms of recovery of Central Bank (BCRA) reserves, the summer could extend a little longer. Yes indeed, To play a full, long-term game, the market wants to see what happens with the laws.
A no less important piece of information was provided by a wise analyst in a meeting with clients: starting in April, importers will be able to access the official exchange market and financial dollars, which could generate noise in the exchange market. Meetings and encounters between analysts, consultants and clients take place in order to discern whether the libertarian experiment is sustainable. Meanwhile, at the same time, continue the investor trips, among which one of the most unnoticed was that of the Institute of International Finance (IIF). But it was not the only relevant one, a group of Wall Street banks and funds, they disembarked and quickly, in addition to ingratiating themselves with the officials of the current administration, they went to visit several companies. Who did they visit? It is said that they were having coffee with executives from Tenaris (Techint), YPF, Galicia and Macro, Cresud, Loma Negra, Globant, Vista, Central Puerto and Pampa Energía, among others, such as the star of the moment, Lithium Argentina . But what it seems is that most of the visitors did not get dengue but rather FOMO (fear of missing out), they don’t want to miss it, in good romance.
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Cocoa: not even bitcoin dared to do so
On one of those visits, one of the foreign guests admitted, when questioned about the carry tradethat “as they say here, they didn’t see it” in reference to the price of cocoa, which from US$4,200 per ton at the start of the year now exceeds US$10,000, the highest value in its history. Not even bitcoin dared to do so! He said smilingly without answering the question. Then they went to meet one of the most respected consultants in the local market and explained that the Government’s priority continues to be to recapitalize the BCRA, of course always with an eye on the downward path of inflation and the sustainability of the fiscal adjustment. Regarding inflation, it was commented that, according to EcoGo, the change in the promotion of bundle (2×1 or 70% discount on the second unit) a percentage discount per unit could generate a one-time lower increase in the National CPI, which they estimate between 0.4% and 0.8% monthly, which would help disinflation in March and April.
While on the fiscal side, now the increase in pension spending will offset part of the expected increase in subsidies. In this sense, The new retirement mobility unleashed, along with the budgetary fate of the UBA, a bitter debate between experts and academics. At an agape, the official proposal described as sensible but which had its dark side, the yin and yang, was analyzed for dessert. First, we should not waste time debating whether pensions are late or not, but rather how to ensure that once adjusted, they do not lose value. Second, the unfortunate wording of the decree and the doubts with the compensation corresponding to January, plus the absence of parliamentary debate, weaken the new regulations in the face of judicial controversies. Those in the know warn that the DNU is reasonable but leaves an open end.
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Talks with splinters
There were also several meetings that continued to generate comments in the academy, such as the one that featured Federico Sturzenegger with the IAE Alumni, until the master class of Ivan Werning in the Di Tella. In some hallways, the advisor’s incessant media actions were highly commented Martin Vauthier, an economist at the Toto consulting firm, Anker, who does not stop giving good news and highlighting the benefits of economic policy. Another novelty of these hours was the landing of the former ANSeS, Osvaldo Giordano, who returned to his Córdoba roots and will now serve as “capo” of the IERAL of the Mediterranean Foundation. Speaking of conversations with splinters, he aroused the eagerness of Juan Carlos de Pabloor by boasting that he not only knows President Milei but sees him often in Olivos, who will have the moment of truth in October 2025. He told the businessmen that there was not a comprehensive economic plan but rather a direction; The economic policy is simple “there is no money”, today we have to close the accounts; The priority is to lower inflation and it better be achieved. He advised them that since there is no rush to get out of the stocks, they should make decisions without expecting a devaluation jump. And as a good retiree who contributed, he said that the problem with retirements is that it is a club of 10 million in which 6 million contributed and the other 4 million did not, if the increases do not differentiate between those who contributed and those who did not, there is no solution.
In another pre-Easter event, before beginning the exodus to Punta del Este, a group of academic financiers remembered the late Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman. One remembered his phrase: it is wonderful to be optimistic, it keeps you healthy and resilient; and another contributed: economists think about what people should do, psychologists observe what they really do. The celebrated author of the bestseller “Thinking Fast, Thinking Slow” was a psychologist whose work on the rationality of decision-making helped create the field of behavioral economics and earned him the Nobel Prize in Economics. Another diner and former student of Kahneman’s explained that he upended assumptions about rationality that had dominated economics for decades and demonstrated the logic behind a host of puzzling behaviors, such as why people refuse to sell stocks that have lost value, or why they drive to a distant store to save money on a small item, but not to make the same savings on an expensive one. To coffee and whiskey, the sentence of the founder of the crypto platform FTX was commented, Sam Bankman-Fried, to 25 years in prison for fraud against clients. There it seems that whoever makes them pays, closing the final chapter of a case that both captivated and overshadowed the cryptocurrency industry. Bankman-Fried faced up to 110 years in prison after being convicted of fraud and conspiracy among other crimes.
Source: Ambito
