When will the economy hit the bottom?

When will the economy hit the bottom?

This is the month with the strongest year-on-year drop so far this year. All items show declines in each of the channels. Economists do not see a quick rebound.

Mariano Fuchila

He Mass consumption fell almost 14% year-on-year in April, according to the latest survey of the consulting firm Scentia. It is a deepening of the collapse which had reached 7.5% in March. The sales contract in all areas and in each of the channels: supermarkets, supermarkets, wholesalers and pharmacy chains. The data raises doubts about When will activity bottom out?

Did the recession end in March? The collapse of mass consumption seems to indicate no. According to data from Scentia, the most important consulting firm in the field, Sales fell 13.8% in April compared to the same month of the previous year. It is an acceleration of the collapse that had been 3.8% in January, 4.1% in February and 7.5% in March.

The decrease is generalized in all sales channels: supermarkets -15.3%, supermarkets -12.2%, wholesalers -13% and pharmacy chains -24.4%. It also affected each of the items: food -9.8%, alcoholic drinks -22.8%, non-alcoholic drinks -16.8%, hygiene and cosmetics -16.9%, impulsive -19.4%, cleaning clothes and home 16.6% .

According to industry sources, the drop in sales is mainly explained by the loss of purchasing power of consumers. “There is no offer, promotion or freeze that can attract customers,” A representative of a retail chain told this medium.

Another striking fact is that The fall is sustained despite the fact that the food and beverage category had increases during April, which on average were below the general level of inflation, which is measured by the INDEC.

A floor for activity?

The idea of ​​a quick recovery is becoming increasingly distant. “I don’t think the recovery is V-shaped, in the country almost all recoveries were in the shape of a smile, an elongated U”he said this Monday Fausto Spotorno, advisor to President Javier Milei. In that sense, the economist from Ferreres & Asociados predicted that “between July and September we should begin to see a restoration process.”

At the consulting firm Analytica, which leads Ricardo Delgadothey think that April could mark a bottom in activity, but they anticipate a slow and heterogeneous exit. To a large extent, the cessation of the decline could be linked to the better performance of agriculture and the sectors associated with that value chain.

“More than a rebound, what we see is that when it reaches a floor, the activity will remain there,” said in dialogue with Ambit, the Chief Economist of Vectorial, Haroldo Montagú. On this point, he explained that “rebounds in Argentine history have always been accompanied by an injection of public spending; expecting a rebound without a push from public policy is difficult.”

Source: Ambito

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