Inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell again in May

Inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell again in May

The expected inflation by Argentines for the next 12 months reached 85.1% in May and accumulated four consecutive months of decline.

According to the Inflation Expectations Survey of the Torcuato Di Tella Universityin April it had been 98.5% according to the average (70% according to the median) and dropped in May to 85.1% (50% according to the median).

It is the fourth consecutive month with falls in the inflation expected by the population for the next 12 months: in January 2024 it was at 230%, according to the average.

In addition, the expected inflation for the next 30 days also registered a significant reduction, going from average from 13.3% in April to 9.89% in May.


Inflation: what is the expectation according to region and socioeconomic level

He survey reflected that the reduction in the expected inflation it is generalized, by regions; In the interior of the country, the expected annual inflation is the lowest, with 77.9%, followed by Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) with 93.4% and City of Buenos Aires (CABA) with 102.5%.

By income, expectations are lower in higher-income households, at 83%, than in low-income households, at 88.3%.

The drop in May was greater for high-income households, who expected inflation of 104.7% in April, while those with low incomes, last month, expected 86.9%.

In this way, in May the differences in opinion by income segment narrowed.

The academic work also showed that during this month different behavior was observed between households of different educational levels (which also approximates the income level).

On the one hand, there was aa significant reduction in expected inflation for households with a higher educational level, and on the other, a small increase for those with a lower level.


In that sense, he recalled that in April the homes of High incomes expected annual inflation of 104.7% while those with low income 86.9%.

“With the sharp drop in what high-income households expect in May, a greater homogeneity of opinions by income level is observed,” assessed Di Tella University.

Source: Ambito

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