A study by the DIW shows which economic living conditions favor the election of AfD and BSW and how their voters differ.
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The Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) alliance of former Left Party MPs is less than a year old and achieved 6.2 percent in the European elections from scratch, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is seen as right-wing extremist in some parts, achieved 15.9 percent nationwide. This means it even overtakes the Chancellor’s party SPD (13.9 percent).
The AfD dominated particularly in eastern Germany. A study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), which is close to the labor market, shows that populist parties are primarily successful where negative structural characteristics are found.
Income and youth unemployment
These include, for example, lower income and high youth unemployment. Current figures show that four of the five districts in which youth unemployment exceeds ten percent are in eastern Germany (Uckermark, Mansfeld-Südharz, Dessau-Roßlau and Vorpommern-Rügen). In all of these districts, the AfD won with values of up to 36 percent, while the BSW achieved a vote share of at least 15 percent.
According to the study, disposable household income is also a relevant criterion when it comes to the electoral success of populist parties. The lower it is, the more likely people are to vote for AfD or BSW. Gelsenkirchen, a western German city, does have the lowest average income (18,886 euros). Overall, however, households in eastern Germany have significantly lower per capita income than those in the west. This is due, among other things, to wage differences that are still large more than 30 years after reunification. Figures from the Federal Statistical Office show that the gap is still wide and full-time employees in eastern Germany receive an average of 824 euros less gross than in western Germany.
Migration and demography
What is surprising is that the issue of migration does play a role in the choice of a party, but less so than the economic factors of unemployment and income: “Our analysis shows that migration is far too short-sighted as an explanation for the strength of the AfD and BSW in the 2024 European elections. Demographics – where many young, well-educated people are migrating – is a much more important factor for the different results in the districts, especially in eastern Germany,” said DIW President Marcel Fratzscher.
Although the population is aging throughout Germany, the numbers are particularly high in eastern Germany. In the Zeitz district, for example, 41 percent of residents are at least 60 years old.
Differences in East and West, AfD and BSW
Overall, it can be seen that in the East, BSW and AfD are particularly successful where the average age is high and education is low. In the West, they also achieve high values in regions with low income levels and many employees in industry whose jobs are threatened by automation.
Although similar factors influence the election results of BSW and AfD, it turns out that they are not always equally successful. Where the structural characteristics are particularly negative, the election result tends to favor the AfD rather than the BSW.
According to the authors, investments in these regions can help mitigate the factors that lead to the electoral success of both parties. One example is Intel’s chip factory, which is to be built in Magdeburg.
Source: Stern
