After breaking a five-month slowdown with a 4.6% increase in June compared with the previous 4.2%, the government hopes the figure will set a precedent for the year to date.
After the inflation rate In the City of Buenos Aires, the National Institute of Statistics and Census recorded an increase of 5.1% (INDEC) will publish the inflation data for July on Wednesday afternoon. According to the Government’s projections, The figure is expected to be between 3.7% and 4%. If this range is confirmed, it would represent the lowest inflation rate of the year, in line with expectations previously established by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo.
Despite a slowdown in previous months, with a consumer price index (CPI) which reached 4.2% in May and increased to 4.6% in June, mainly due to increases in electricity, gas, and rental rates, The Government is confident of a decrease in July. Although the seventh month of the year usually has higher inflation due to seasonal factors such as winter holidays, The Government projects that the figure will be lower than that of May.
In a recent meeting with market agents, the Minister of Finance stated that inflation will continue its downward trend and that July will be the month with the lowest rate of the year. According to the minister, “The hardest part is already done” and highlighted achievements such as the fiscal surplus and the availability of mortgage loans. He also assured that the economy is on a path of growth.
Compared to private forecasts, the Government is very optimistic, as various consulting firms maintain that although the data will be low, It will not be what the economic team expects.
What inflation do consulting firms expect for July?
The consulting firms that report their projections to the Central Bank calculated that the cost of living was 3.9% in July, according to the Market Expectations Survey (REM). In the case of C&T Associatesprojected a variation of 4.4% for July, while for Analytica, the cost of living in July would also have been around 4%, slightly below.
“After a June in which the rate update contributed to accelerating nominality, in July the priority was again inflation, leaving aside the rate update and increasing the fuel tax by an amount lower than that stipulated at the beginning,” explained the consultancy. EcoGo.
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Reuters
In the case ACMThe cost of living estimate for July is around 4.2%, so prices will not be able to break through the floor that the Government has targeted for the seventh month of the year.
On the contrary, for Libertad y Progreso, prices rose by an average of 3.9% in July and the Executive Branch would have reasons to celebrate a new drop in inflationary inertia. And for the study of Orlando Ferreres and Associateswas just below 4%. In contrast, the CESO economic team projected between 4% and 4.5% for July, which would give figures similar to those of the last two months.
Source: Ambito
