Private consulting firms project that the impact of the reduction in the Country Tax will help break through the 4% monthly floor at which the inflationary process seems to have stagnated.
Private consulting firms project that the impact of the reduction in the Country Tax will help break through the 4% monthly floor
Mariano Fuchila
Minister Luis Caputo confirmed the reduction of the PAIS tax from 17.5% to 7.5% for imports of goods and freight starting next Monday. Private consulting firms project that the impact of the reduction in this tax will be less than 1% on inflation in September, which could break 4%, while for August, they expect it to be at that level.
From Delphos They explained that “the impact on the price trend is more diffuse since the transfer to the retail prices of imported goods will take place over the course of days/weeks. In an intermediate scenario, The reduction in the CPI in September could be estimated at 0.5/0.6 percentage points, contributing to the disinflation process“.
For its part, Fernando Marullfrom FMyAanticipated in one of its latest reports that there will be three impacts: in the fiscal area, a lower collection of around 0.4% of GDP; as for imports, they foresee an increase of US$1,000 million, and Finally, as regards inflation, the incidence was slightly lower at 0.7%.
“In September, with the reduction of the PAIS Tax by 10 pp (which implies a 0.7 pp reduction in wholesale inflation), We estimate that inflation will fall to 3% per monthsignificant but far from the 1% that the government predicted, or even the 2% “crawling”. For the rest of the year, the most reasonable thing is still to leave the CEPO in 2024 – although that is not what the market believes – and we expect inflation in 2024 to close at 133%,” they explained.
In turn, the economist Juan Manuel Telecheafrom your account in Xhe said: “Inflation seems to have found its floor at 4%. We will see if the reduction of the PAÍS tax in September helps to break through it.“. In this regard he cited Eco Go Retail Price Survey which, for the fourth week of August 2024, indicated that The weekly variation in food was 0.8%, while the RPM projection for August was 4%.
Caputo on the impact of the PAIS Tax on September inflation
The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputoon the impact of the reduction of the PAIS Tax on inflation: “I think we will see a drop in prices in September.We have gathered many cameras, cars, household appliances, food, motorcycles, precisely to transmit this to you, to transmit to you that people have to receive and perceive from the other side. The important thing is that they understand that we all have to build again, the system of speculation is useless because it is bread for today, hunger for tomorrow.and really everyone’s reaction has been very good, I have good prospects.”
As for inflation in August, the minister considered that it will be at a level close to that of July. “Hopefully a little lower, but it will be around 4%,” he predicted and again stressed that in September it will drop by as much as the reduction of the PAIS Tax as the next measures that will be announced that “will contribute to lowering the Argentine cost.”
Source: Ambito
