aggravates the opposition crisis and strengthens alliances with a view to 2025

aggravates the opposition crisis and strengthens alliances with a view to 2025

The change in climate began to be felt after the support from Mauricio Macri to Javier Milei. The head of the PRO veered from a potential “freedom of action” that he paid for the weekend to an endorsement – ​​with criticism of “the management” – during the following days. Since then, the opponents could no longer pierce the ceiling of 160 willswhich led the government to need fewer and fewer votes to achieve its objectives, close to eighty. The negotiation then focused on the resolution of some issues hand in hand, a simple task for La Libertad Avanza (LLA), which tied the dialogueist governors to its scrum, the one that it announced at the barbecue of the “87 heroes” who had upheld the previous veto, that of the retirement reform.

Of course, the veto hits the approval of Javier Milei. A good part of its voters reside among university students. And although it was a parliamentary victory because it allowed him to maintain fiscal priority unscathed and not show weakness externally, in fact he showed himself to have just over half the votes of the opposition. It also opens a paralysis scheme: the Government can hardly pass a law, and the opposition loses its capacity to cause damage. With that third, Milei will be able to survive the opposition initiatives by pure veto and, in the process, remove any specter that he could be checked with a political trial (to promote it a qualified majority of two thirds is needed).

Even the Casa Rosada had put forward an almost unusual argument: If Congress overruled the veto, there were plans to go to court to find a solution.. That is, invalidate two decisions of the Legislative Branch in the courts. It was not necessary, for the good of the democratic system, to get there.

Opposition in crisis

Macri’s criticism of LLA’s management does not even reach the category of fireworks. The idea of ​​co-government or the contribution of technical officials became increasingly distant. The trials became just electoral strategiesdepending on a LLA-PRO alliance that will be given out of necessity. Neither Milei can expose himself to the yellows splitting his vote, nor can Mauricio Macri be left naked with the visibility of the mass migration of his electorate to the violet ranks.

The former president holds Milei. Your voters are there. From now on they will be supports with certain demands, as Macri expressed to Santiago Caputo at the reserved summit. In this case, the order was salary increase for university teacherswhich on the premises the PRO deputies raised as their own concession, wrested from the ruling party.

The governorsdespite the accumulation of non-compliance they suffer from the Government, they have room to shake hands with Milei. They were not daunted by the massive federal march. The request of rectors of the universities in their homelands did not twist their arms. Rather than funds to the study houses, they prefer to discuss more generous items in the 2025 Budget. Works, financing of retirement funds, subsidies of all kinds are at stake in this debate, of which the Deputy Chief of Staff Lisandro Catalán, dependent on Guillermo Francos.

The provincial leaders can swing and take positioning definitions in the run-up to the elections, within long months. Some of them may even return to Peronism if necessary. Osvaldo Jaldo was key again, this time the Raúl Jalil from Catamarca and the missionary Hugo Passalacqua. Until the Claudio Vidal from Santa Cruz winked at LLA, as well as the Ignacio Torres from Chubut. Both, at the beginning of the year, were rebellious Patagonians.

Meanwhile, radicalism failed to reverse the will of the coreligionists who joined the veto club. The most well-intentioned believed that the banner of defense of the public university was enough. It didn’t happen. They voted with Milei: Mariano Campero, Martín Arjol, José Tournier and Luis Picat. Pablo Cervi abstained. The UCR deepens its identity crisis. To the point that the so-called “radicals with a wig” They’re excited about Paying For Favors getting a spot on the purple lists next year. Radicalism was virtually divided into three: those who line up against the Government under the leadership of Martin Lousteauthose who pay the temptation to jump into the arms of LLA, and the patient governors who look at the map from the balcony.

Peronism, while organizing its internal affairs, managed to create a solid opposition-oriented bloc, and although its majority in the chambers does not give it political victories, Unión por la Patria crystallizes as the space that will channel discontent against Milei. An increasingly polarized scenario, where the headache seems to be for the believers of the third way.

collateral damage

Of course, the veto will have costs for the Government. Milei’s image that was going down will continue that trend. The political wear and tear of each measure is calculated by the Government. They assume it. The ruling party believes that the opposition “takes noble flags to hit the box” and they are going to resist it. The fiscal front is not touched. The Casa Rosada is betting on showing macroeconomic results, while the arrival of improvements to the pocketbook is moving away.

Non-compliance with governors does not have a linear response. Just as the engineering of the third held its own with some leaders, it also left others on the opposite side. He Marcelo Orrego from San Juan or Gustavo Sáenz from Salta This time they did not get on the LLA ship.

Likewise, conflict is increasing. The university movement in the streets and in the same houses of study, adds to a zigzagging relationship with the unions, to the claims of retirees and to the events that occurred after the announcement of the closure of the Bonaparte Hospital, with mobilizations that forced to think about a restructuring of the center intended for the care of mental health cases. Strikes by teachers, transport unions, blackouts against fare increases appear on the near horizon. Containing these claims will also be the Government’s task.

Source: Ambito

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