The Government estimated that poverty decreased. However, voices against it multiplied, pointing out the lack of capacity of the ministry to become a statistical center with INDEC present.
During the week it emerged from the Ministry of Human Capital which is in charge of Sandra Pettovello, that he has not yet complied with any of the 8 court orders to deliver the merchandise he has in the workshops of Tafi Viejo (Tucumán) and/or Villa Martelli (Buenos Aires province), information that expresses that poverty would have fallen to 38.9% poverty in our country, in order to generate a sensation that fell close to 14% since last June.
The reality is that the Ministry of Human Capital does not carry out statistics, but rather it is the function of the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses since 1967, when Law 17,622 on statistical secrecy was promulgated and that the poverty information for June and December of each year is published in the months of September and March following the information generated by the EPH. As the aforementioned Ministry would be duplicating functions in the National State since it was created during December 2023, It would be legal to eliminate it and make all its human resources available superiors in accordance with the provisions of the Base Law, which has had a double sanction since last June.
On the same day that the ut-supra mentioned ministry released these data, INDEC published the Report on Income Distribution. The result and what it establishes is that the average income is approximately $650,000 for each of the public and private workers. – regardless of whether they are blank, unregistered or self-employed. Based on this, the 29.7 million Argentines that are counted among them are divided because even all retirees and pensioners are incorporated into 10 sectors of 2.97 million people each, called deciles statistically, and among the first 8 deciles they range from $0 at $590,000. While in the 9th decile it is from $590,000 to $834,000, which incorporates about 3 or 4% of the 2.97 million members at levels lower than $650,000, the last decile being the one that goes from $834,000 to $7,500,000.
Poverty
If we take these data we can only say that About 83% (approximately 24,670,000 Argentines) of the people who have income in the country are less than averagebut if we compare that same thing against the total INDEC Basic Basket for a couple with 2 children, which is $1,001,000, that percentage rises to 92%. That they would be in a situation of poverty, since the CBT is the poverty threshold according to the data provided by the INDEC.
Carry trade and economic activity: the impact on poverty
At the beginning of the week until Wednesday, a part of the exit from the carry trade which began last January with an average interest rate of 45% effective in treasury bills and/or fixed terms as a result of the drop in the US dollar bill, which in January was close to $1,300 for each dollar and at the end of the week Last time it reached $1,050 and rose this Wednesday to $1,205; I mean, the financial bicycle ran out of air in the wheels.
For this reason, they began to dismantle the positions in pesos and buy dollars on the Stock Market with the MEP dollar and CCL since last week, having a very high positive result of more than 70% in dollars. Knowing that the blue/free dollar is only a reflection of the financial ones, on Wednesday ANSES offered them via FGS (Fund that is intended for the payment of sentences and credits to retirees and pensioners) close to the 650 million surplus 2030 bonds operated. Returning to normal values after that to stop the increase of $150 that occurred between the previous week and Wednesday the 18th
All this remains endorsed by the EMAE (Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity) which only in the month of May gave interannual growth of +1.4%the rest of December 2023 to November 2024 being all negative in confluence with the drop in consumption given by CAME and the 16,500 SMEs closed from January to October of this year. Only the 3Q of 2024 gave GDP growth +3.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the 1Q and 2Q of 2024 being negative and foreseeing a fall in the 4Q with the levels of economic activity and consumption, it is logical that the year 2024 will have a GDP fall of about -.3.5/-4% year-on-year against 2023, there are already 2 things to take into account
Statistical data are made based on realities and never simply by multiplying a quarter by 4 or raising a monthly data to the 12th or daily data to the 365th power. The only way to lower inflation to levels of 50-60% in 2025 is with a greater economic recession/depression and subjecting the population to a useless sacrifice that will only cause greater poverty and destitution than the current one.
If we make these two positions stated, we are facing a group of highly perverse people who could be called degenerate statisticians who seek to create only a political story without caring at all about the people of our beloved country.
Source: Ambito
