In February 2025 the inflation expected by the population for the next twelve months registered a rise of 0.4 percentage points, going from a value of 41.2% in January to 41.6% this month. According to the median, the expected inflation of February is maintained at 30%.
Sebastián Auguste, director of the UTDT Finance Research Center, said: “The expected inflation records a rise in our February measurement, based on data collected between 3 and 13 of the current month. This increase breaks the decreasing trend observed since January 2024, with the exception of June, when a slight increase had also been recorded. ”
“ANDThe average registered value for expected inflation for the next 12 months is 41.6%, ”he added.
“An annual inflation expectation of 41.6% such as the registered this month implies an average monthly (effective) monthly rate for the next 12 months of 2.94%.”
Inflation expectation according to the region and educational level
According to the analysis, the inflation expectation decreases for CABA, which reports the lowest expectations, with 38.7%. It is followed by the interior with 39.4% and Greater Buenos Aires with 46.6%. The January values were 47.6%, 38.8%and 44.5%, respectively.
In February, the difference in Inflation expectations according to the educational level reached 6.7%, A significant increase with respect to the 0.1% gap in January and 3.2% in December. As for higher income households, their inflation expectations went from 41.3% in January to 39.2% in February. On the other hand, Low income households expect inflation of 45.9% in February, an increase with respect to 41.2% registered in January.
Regarding the monthly measurement of inflation, since May 2023, a survey on price expectations for the next 30 days is carried out. In February, expected inflation averaged 4.48%, a slight increase compared to 4.25% registered in January.
How the Inflation Expectation Survey is measured
The index is obtained from the results of a monthly survey that covers 1000 cases throughout the country between February 3 and 13. The measurement is based on the following question:
1. Comparing the prices now with those of a year forward, around what percentage do you expect, on average, prices rise in the next twelve months?
In addition to a series of checks aimed at corroborating the consistency of the answers, as is usual in these cases, the sample (between centiles 10 and 90) is truncated in order to avoid extreme values, but without losing the information they give us. The sample is sought to reflect the response of the respondent according to the scale required by the question.
Source: Ambito
