Economic reality throughthe Argentine middle class -The strength of the strength- It has been contracting over the years, and with it the national “Leimotiv” of ascending social mobility has been put in crisis. Years of deterioration in household revenues, as well as a greater accumulation of wealth in a small portion of society, explain the phenomenon.
Inequality and poverty at maximum of the last 30 years
Inequality slightly gave up towards the end of 2024, but it is still as high as it was during the second quarter of 2021always taking into account that the second and fourth quarter are comparable because they do not include the bonus medium. He Gini coefficientwhich measures the family per capita of people in the total of the 31 urban agglomerates, was located in 0.430, while at the end of 2023 it positioned itself in 0.435, just over.
In parallel, it was known that poverty affected 38.1% of the Argentine population, with a 8.2% in Indigence situation. In this way, he showed a decline with respect to the first half of last year, when it was known that more than half of the population was poor (52.9%), but also in front of the same period last year, when poverty reached 41.7% of the inhabitants.
At the end of 2023, poverty affected about 19.5 million peoplewhile in the last semester of 2024 it reached 17.9 million. Official figures indicate that About 1.6 million people left poverty between the second semester of 2023 and 2024. This drop in poverty, according to specialists, is still related to the decrease in inflation.
In the statistical series of recent years, these data are still high: “Income inequality is today at levels higher than those of 50 years ago”he explains Argyedata reservoir Found. In that line, it is highlighted that the metric fluctuated significantly in the last five decades, reaching peaks in the two most severe economic crises, such as hyperinflation in 1989 and the crisis of convertibility in 2001-2002. At that time, the Gini coefficient It was located at 52.3 and 53, respectively.
“Then there is a progressive reduction in the 2000s, coinciding with a better international scenario, sustained economic growth and the extension of the social protection system. Finally, for almost a decade the inequality reached a plateau with a slight upward trend. The current inequality levels are similar to those of the democratic return of the 1980s and higher than those of 50 years ago “They analyze.
Something similar occurs with poverty, which in the last 30 years was never less than 25%. The lowest data was registered in the second half of 2017, when it was located in 25.7%. From there, almost 10 percentage points (PP) were shot due to the government’s exchange crisis of Mauricio Macri and with the pandemic more than 6 pp grew “later that rise between 2021 and the first part of 2022 was subsequently recovered. Since then there was a new setback that made poverty again exceed 40% in 2023, and even 50% in early 2024,” he mentions Argye.
What about unemployment?
“In recent years, Argentina’s unemployment rate was at the lowest levels of the last three decades,” says Argondata. And it is true, although having a job does not imply that a person is out of poverty, depending on the deterioration of income.
The unemployment closed the last quarter of 2024 with 6.4%substantially below the peak of almost 20% registered in 2002 or of the 18.8% with which Carlos Menem He won his re -election in 1995. In contrast, poverty is at similar levels. In the second half of 1995 it was located in the 38.5%just above the indicator with which he closed 2024 (38.1%). Although it differs with the data of the crisis output of convertibility, which had reached 65.5% in the last period of 2002.
This shows that having a job does not grant the possibility of ensuring sufficient income to reach the end of the month. In modern times, in Argentina, the “leitmotiv” of “ascending mobility” entered into crisis with the growing retraction of the middle class since 2017. As explained Daniel Schteingart to Scope“The concept of broad middle class, income measurement -which is used by the World Bank– It shows that the middle class population is the reverse of the percentage of population that is poor. While poverty rises, the percentage of middle class and vice versa goes down. “
Consumption, in recoil
In that line, the consumption only in December fell 18% and showed a slowdown against the September peak, according to the consulting company Scentia. In the annual accumulated, it fell 13.9% compared to the same month of 2023 and is positioned as one of the worst years in the last 20, approximately.
The contraction is similar between chain supermarket (-17.3% monthly) and Independent Self -Services in AMBA (-18.7% monthly), although it was more pronounced in this last segment. Faced with December 2023, sales were rolled back 14.5% and 13.4%, respectively.
In the disaggregated, strong falls are observed in the field of Without alcohol without alcohol (-24.4%), alcohol drinks (-22.7%) and hygiene and cosmetics (-21%).
Meanwhile, the Total sales accumulated in shopping malls at constant prices They fell 5.8% compared to the same period last year.
The last social pyramid measured by income made by W consultant shows that 26% of the population is lower class and the same percentage is upper class. Therefore, 52% of the population is lower class.
The data shows that the middle class is reduced and a greater concentration of wealth is generated in an increasingly reduced sector. 26% of the population is low middle class and 17% high. Added reaches 43%. Meanwhile, Only 5% is upper class.
The narrative of ascending social mobility entered into crisis
With the growing middle class fall, the narrative of the “Ascending social mobility” It also fell into crisis. A recent survey of Found It shows a strong weakening of this traditional belief among young people in popular neighborhoods, who previously aspired to socially ascend especially based on effort in studies and work.
Among the respondents, 40% of them continue to relate their lives from it, however, they express serious doubts about their possibilities of doing it; In the middle, 20% reduce their aspirations to the minimum; And another 40% abandons them (“I no longer have a future”) and live installed in the present.
“The narrative of ascending social mobility through the effort in the study and at work is still in force, but only for a group of young people, and even these find it difficult to sustain it given the opportunities and resources actually available,” adds the survey.
The abandonment of this narrative finds its explanation in two variables: the lack of opportunities; and the few who manage to specify their aspirations.
Source: Ambito
